The Trend of Sino-U.S. Relations after Taiwan's Travel Law



1. Background of the formation of the bill

The Taiwan Travel Act (English: Taiwan Travel Act) was introduced by the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate in September 2016 and re-introduced in January and May 2017. It has been unanimously passed by the Senate and the House of Representatives and President Trang. A law that was signed into effect on March 16, 2018, aims to promote high-level exchanges between Taiwan¡¯s governing authorities and the United States. This law is the continuation of the "Taiwan Relations Act" and another existing domestic law related to Taiwan.

The "Taiwan Travel Act" (HR6047) was first introduced on September 15, 2016 by U.S. Representatives Steve Shaper, Brad Sherman, and Ted Boye. The content of the bill promoted the relationship between the United States and Taiwan. Exchange visits at all levels; Xia Porter pointed out that through the Taiwan Exchange Act, the US government should promote direct dialogue with Taiwan¡¯s elected president to ensure stable relations between the two sides.

After the House of Representatives proposal, Senators Jim Inhofe and Marco Rubio also introduced the Senate version of the bill (S.3397) on September 27 of the same year. Rubio pointed out that the long-term lack of effective communication between Taiwan and the United States hindered bilateral relations. Development, through the Travel Act with Taiwan, will promote exchanges of visits at all levels between the United States and Taiwan.

However, different versions of the bill ultimately failed to pass the 114th U.S. Congress. On January 13, 2017, during a transit visit by Taiwan¡¯s governing authority Tsai Ing-wen to San Francisco, Federal Representatives Steve Shaper, Brad Sherman, Ted Boy and Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee Ed Royce The bill was reintroduced (HR535), and Senators Sherrod Brown, Robert Menendez, Corey Jardner, Gary Pitts, Jim Inhofe, and Marco Rubio also reintroduced the bill on May 4. The House of Representatives re-introduced the Senate version of the bill (S.1051).

On June 15, 2017, October 12, and January 9, 2018, the United States House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee Asia-Pacific Group, Foreign Affairs Committee, and the House of Representatives successively passed the draft Taiwan Travel Act (HR535). On February 7 and February 28, 2018, the U.S. Senate Foreign Affairs Committee and the House of Representatives passed the draft successively. The approved draft has been sent to the White House by the U.S. Congress on March 5, local time, to be signed by U.S. President Donald Trump. If Trump has not signed or used his veto, the bill will be automatically issued on March 16. Take effect. However, Trump chose to sign the bill on the last day of yesterday's deadline (March 16), and the White House issued a press release that afternoon to announce the bill's entry into force.

2. The main key content of the bill

The House of Representatives version (HR535) of the "Taiwan Travel Act" stipulates that the U.S. policy should allow U.S. officials at all levels to travel to Taiwan and meet with corresponding Taiwanese officials; allow high-level Taiwan officials to enter the U.S. and meet with the U.S. under appropriate conditions of respect Officials-including officials from the State Department, the Department of Defense, and other cabinet agencies to meet; encourage the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States and any Taiwan-established institutions in the United States to conduct formal activities in the United States, and engage members of the United States Congress, federal and state government officials, and Taiwan High-level officials are no longer restricted to participate in it.

The Senate version (S.1051) is roughly similar to the House of Representatives version, but clearly authorizes all levels of the U.S. government, including cabinet-level national security officials, military officers, and other executive officials to go to Taiwan to meet with their counterparts. And it requires the Secretary of State of the United States to submit a report to the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Senate and House of Representatives within 180 days after the law is enacted, and every 180 days thereafter.

3. Different evaluations

Supported evaluation

Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen thanked President Trump on Twitter and looked forward to further cooperation with the United States. The "Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of China" expressed gratitude and welcome for this bill, and emphasized that the Travel Law with Taiwan is a "spontaneous proposal of US Congressmen", calling on the United States to further enhance bilateral exchanges to deepen bilateral relations, and said that it will continue with the United States The administration has worked closely to "make Taiwan-US relations stronger."

The "Taiwanese Public Affairs Association" considers the Taiwan Travel Act to be an important message released by the U.S. Congress and believes that the original bilateral communication model between Taiwan and the United States is outdated and insufficient to maintain regional peace; and the former deputy leader of Taiwan¡¯s governing authority Annette Lu After the US Senate Asia-Pacific Group passed the Taiwan Travel Act on June 15, 2017, it expressed welcome and gratitude, and referred to this as "delayed justice." Tsai Ing-wen, the leader of Taiwan's governing authority, passed the draft in the U.S. House of Representatives and expressed gratitude on Twitter for supporting Taiwan's democracy and government, and said that this bill will help strengthen Taiwan-US relations.

Opposing evaluation

Zhang Nianchi, director of the Shanghai Institute of East Asian Studies, commented that the Taiwan Travel Act was "too stupid", and advocated that the Taiwan Travel Act would only harm Taiwan's interests even more, and he said that it would not be passed in the end.

my country's official media "Global Times" commented that the ups and downs in Sino-US relations "even shocks are coming." Yuan Zheng, a researcher at the American Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with the newspaper that the "Taiwan Travel Act" has slowly "emptied" the political foundation of Sino-US relations. This follows the passage of the US "Taiwan Relations Act" in 1979. "The most serious legislative upgrade." It is the "biggest change" of the United States on the Taiwan issue. Compared with the Sino-US trade war, it is "not a heavyweight." The newspaper also quoted Liu Guoshen, director of the Institute of Taiwan Studies at Xiamen University, as saying that this incident was the biggest change between China and the United States on the Taiwan issue after the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.

On the day before the Taiwan Travel Law came into effect, Lu Kang, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, clearly expressed his firm opposition to the regular press conference on March 16, 2018, Beijing time. The principle established in a joint communiqu¨¦ interferes in China¡¯s internal affairs". My official media Global Times and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences researcher Wang Jian, one of the important national think tanks, said that this bill is a good reason for unifying Taiwan by force, and said that once the US President signs or passes the bill, he will attack Taiwan in accordance with China's Anti-Secession Law. Since on December 19, 2017, Li Kexin, our minister in the United States, officially stated that once US warships docked in Taiwan, they would attack Taiwan by force. In a short period of time, Chinese officials and official media expressed that they wanted to use Taiwan by force, which triggered international discussions.

In addition, another spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, Geng Shuang, has previously responded to issues related to the "Taiwan Travel Law": Although the relevant provisions of the bill are not legally binding, they seriously violate the one-China principle and the provisions of the three Sino-US joint communiques. Through implementation, it will cause serious interference to Sino-US relations and the situation across the Taiwan Strait. "The one-China principle is the political foundation of Sino-US relations. We urge the United States to honor its commitments to China on the Taiwan issue, stop reviewing relevant bills, properly handle Taiwan-related issues, and maintain the stability of bilateral relations and the Taiwan Strait."

As early as October 12, 2017, when the Foreign Affairs Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives proposed the draft, it was strongly opposed by our country. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying stated on October 13, 2017, ¡°It must be emphasized again that the relevant bill seriously violates the one-China policy and the principles of the three Sino-US joint communiqu¨¦s and interferes in China¡¯s internal affairs. We firmly oppose this.¡± She urged the US to "handle the Taiwan issue cautiously, refrain from any official exchanges and contacts with Taiwan, and refrain from sending any wrong signals to the'Taiwan independence' separatist forces, so as not to interfere with and harm the overall situation of Sino-US relations."

Yesterday, a few hours after US President Trump signed the Taiwan Travel Law, the spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy in the United States made a statement on the US "Taiwan Travel Act", expressing strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition. The conversation stated that the relevant provisions of the "Taiwan Travel Act" seriously violated the one-China principle and the provisions of the three Sino-US joint communiqu¨¦s. China is strongly dissatisfied and firmly opposed to this. The one-China principle is the political foundation of Sino-US relations. We urge the United States to abide by its commitment to the one-China policy and the principles of the three Sino-US joint communiqu¨¦s, stop official exchanges between the United States and Taiwan and enhance substantive relations, and handle Taiwan-related issues prudently and properly so as not to cause serious interference and damage to Sino-US cooperation.

Evaluation of American think tank figures

Armitage, the former Deputy Secretary of State of the United States and the No. 2 figure in the State Department under the Bush administration, issued a joint report with several other heavyweights when the law came into effect, suggesting that President Trump meet with Taiwan¡¯s leader Tsai Ing-wen . The report also stated that the highest-level elected officials in the United States should regularly contact and interact with Taiwan's highest-elected officials. U.S. cabinet-level officials should also regularly visit officials of corresponding departments and levels in Taiwan. They also suggested that officials including Assistant Secretary of State and Assistant Secretary of Defense can visit Taiwan in unofficial capacity in the near future. In addition to the regular exchange of visits between officials of the two sides, arms sales to Taiwan should also be normalized. In addition, the US military should also conduct joint military exercises with the Taiwan military.

Trends in Sino-U.S. Relations

The future direction of China-U.S. relations basically depends on the fundamental changes at five important levels and the decisions of the leaders of China and the U.S. in their behaviors. Now let me make a preliminary analysis of these aspects:

1. Political fundamentals

China, after the founding of the Republic, China has always emphasized politics, and also emphasized political ideas and at the same time propaganda. The current political fundamentals of China are the 13th National People's Congress and the CPPCC National People's Congress, which have just opened, and the constitutional amendment has just been passed, emphasizing that the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party is the most essential feature of socialism with Chinese characteristics. The provisions on foreign affairs are qualitative as follows: "The achievements of China's revolution, construction, and reform are inseparable from the support of the people of the world"; "China adheres to an independent foreign policy, adheres to mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, and non-aggression, The five principles of non-interference in each other¡¯s internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence, adhere to the path of peaceful development, and adhere to a mutually beneficial and win-win strategy of opening up; "Develop diplomatic relations and economic and cultural exchanges with other countries" amended to "Develop diplomacy with other countries" Relations and economic and cultural exchanges promote the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind." Since the Constitution is the highest law of the country, it expresses it very clearly, and there are already fundamental laws in terms of foreign politics.

In the United States, due to the different national systems, the United States is a federal republic. The President, Congress, and courts jointly hold the power of the federal government in accordance with the U.S. Constitution. At the same time, the federal government and the state government jointly own sovereignty in accordance with federal and state laws. The two major political parties in the United States are the Republican Party and the Democratic Party. The two parties have dominated and controlled American politics since the American Civil War. There are also some parties with less political influence, including the Libertarian Party, but those parties failed to win nationwide. This can be reflected in the electoral votes. The United States implements free elections with free competition. As a result, the two major parties took turns in power according to the general election.

2. Fundamentals of Diplomacy

In China, the government report of Premier Li Keqiang at the 13th National People's Congress discussed diplomacy in this way: In the past five years, major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics has been comprehensively promoted. Successfully hosted the first ¡°Belt and Road¡± International Cooperation Summit Forum, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Organization Leaders¡¯ Informal Meeting, the Hangzhou Summit of G20 Leaders, and the BRICS Leaders¡¯ Meeting in Xiamen, and other major home diplomacy. President Xi Jinping and other national leaders have visited many countries and attended major events such as the United Nations summits, the climate change conference, the World Economic Forum, and the East Asia Cooperation Leaders' Meetings, and the all-round diplomatic layout is intensified. Advocate the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind and contribute more Chinese wisdom to the reform of the global governance system. Economic diplomacy and cultural exchanges have been fruitful. Firmly safeguard national sovereignty and maritime rights and interests. As a responsible major country, China has played an important and constructive role in resolving international and regional hotspot issues, and has made new major contributions to world peace and development.

The United States, after 1945, the United States actually leads and dominates the foreign policy of a major country in the United States, and acts as the world's policeman. Modern American diplomacy is generally guided by values diplomacy, converging with countries that identify with political universal suffrage or alliances with foreign forces, promoting universal suffrage democracy to improve the world, but at the same time, the United States adopts double standards in foreign policy, such as the monarchy of many oil-producing countries in the Middle East. Countries such as Russia or Iran, which at least have leader elections that are closer to universal suffrage, still suppress them. They often play down the armed coups and massacres of pro-American forces. Therefore, the purpose of promoting values is actually to interfere in other countries. Internal affairs create more vassals and gain US economic and military benefits.

3. Economic fundamentals

China adopted a planned economy model in the early days of the founding of the People's Republic of China. After the reform and opening up in 1978, it transformed into a socialist market economy. In the thirty years since the reform and opening up, China¡¯s GDP has grown at an average annual rate of nearly 10%, making it one of the countries with the fastest economic growth. In 2017, China's GDP was RMB 827,122 billion (US$12.25 trillion), an increase of 6.9% over the previous year. Among them, the primary industry (agriculture) was 6,546.8 billion yuan, accounting for 7.9% of the added value; the secondary industry (industry and construction) was 33,462.3 billion yuan, accounting for 40.5% of the added value, and the tertiary industry (service industry) was 42.702 billion. Yuan, the value-added accounted for 51.6%. According to 2015 International Monetary Fund data, China is the world's second largest economy (or the world's largest economy if purchasing power parity is used), the largest industrial country, the largest agricultural country, and the second largest service industry country. China is the largest manufacturing country and the world's largest trading country (the largest exporter and the second largest importer). It ranks first in the output and export volume of more than 200 products, and dozens of export products account for more than 70% of the world. Since China¡¯s economic growth depends on investment and export earnings, of course the real estate industry¡¯s contribution to the economy is obvious to all. Whether there is a high bubble is the market in the next few years. After 2010, the growth has slowed significantly. The government adjusted the economic structure for this. Change to consumption to drive economic growth. In 2016, the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth reached 64.6%.

The United States, the United States is the world¡¯s largest economy today. In 2015, its gross domestic product (GDP) was US$17.87 trillion, accounting for about one-fifth of the world economy, and its per capita GDP (2015) was US$55,710 (ranking the world¡¯s largest). 5). The United States is the world's second largest trading country, the world's second largest exporter, and the world's largest importer. The U.S. economy is a mixed economy: most microeconomic decisions are made by companies or private enterprises; the government uses laws and regulations, fiscal and tax policies, monetary policies, and other methods to intervene or macro-control the economy. , Social security, savings insurance and other fields to provide some subsidies or services. The top five trading partners are China, Canada, Mexico, Japan and Germany. The United States is also the world's third largest oil producer and second largest natural gas producer. After experiencing stagflation in the 1970s, the US economy has generally shown a slow growth in recent years. Since 2007, it has been affected by the financial crisis. The long-term problems facing the U.S. economy include: huge trade deficits and government fiscal deficits, the lowest savings rate since the 1970s, and growing high debts such as more than $5 trillion in public debt, and about $900 billion in corporate debt, exceeding 1.5 trillion. US dollar housing mortgage debt, 3 trillion US dollars of potential medical liabilities, 1.2 trillion US dollars of social security fund gaps, and so on. Domestic assets total 13.1 trillion U.S. dollars.

At present, the United States has begun to launch a trade war. First, it will significantly increase tariffs on steel and aluminum, and then the United States will increase other tariffs to limit imports to protect its own production capacity. The United States¡¯ approach may be the end of everyone¡¯s loss. .

Considering that the populations of China and the United States are different, the population of China is 1.379 billion, and the population of the United States is 325 million. China¡¯s population is 4.2 times that of the United States, and China¡¯s GDP is 0.68 times that of the United States. Compared with the United States, it is estimated that it will take another 50 years for China to surpass the US economy per capita. As the two major economies are still developing, whether it will be able to surpass in the next 50 years, I cannot speculate. If based on conventional analysis, it will not be easy to surpass.

Fourth, military fundamentals

In China, the armed forces are composed of the Chinese People¡¯s Liberation Army and the Chinese People¡¯s Armed Police Forces, under the command of the Central Military Commission, and adopt a military leadership system of "party command guns. It has an important position and role in the overall situation of national security and development strategy, and shoulders the mission and responsibility of safeguarding national sovereignty, security, and development interests.

China adopts a combination of conscription and recruitment systems. The PLA has a total of 2.3 million standing soldiers. The number of troops is planned to be reduced to two million. It is the world's largest regular army with an army, navy, air force, rocket force and strategic support forces. The government stated in 2014 that the total annual military budget reached 850 billion yuan. In 2018, the military budget announced by the Ministry of Finance was 1.1 trillion yuan, second only to the United States. The world-renowned Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sweden, the Office of the Secretary of Defense of the United States and other departments believe that considering China¡¯s undisclosed expenditures, the actual defense budget is larger than the official budget.

China has a three-in-one nuclear strike capability consisting of intercontinental ballistic missiles, ballistic missile submarines, and strategic bombers, as well as intercontinental ballistic missiles that can be equipped with nuclear warheads. However, compared with the United States and Russia, China's power projection capabilities are still insufficient. China vigorously develops equipment such as anti-ship ballistic missiles and anti-satellite weapons, anti-satellite missiles, cruise missiles, anti-ballistic missiles, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. As for the navy, China has a large number of ships in service in recent years, including dozens of 052C and 052D-class new-generation guided missile destroyers, dozens of 054A and 056-class frigates, and the newly launched 055 ship. In 2012, China equipped the first aircraft carrier Liaoning, and launched an aircraft carrier with hull number 001A in 2017. It also updated a new strategic deterrent submarine fleet composed of more modern ballistic missile submarines and attack nuclear submarines. The modernization of the Air Force has also made significant progress, with its own development and production of modern military aircraft such as stealth fifth-generation fighters, hypersonic aircraft, and unmanned aerial vehicles. China has also replaced existing equipment with newly developed modern army weapons, and its command and control system has also been enhanced from C3I to C4I to strengthen its control over network-centric warfare.

With the advancement of air supremacy and maritime denial capabilities, China's influence in the region has continued to increase. It has not only held joint military exercises with the Russian Navy in the Mediterranean, but also conducted activities in the Bering Strait, and established its first overseas support base in Djibouti, Africa. Build a chain of pearls along the sea route. In addition to being regarded as a country possessing nuclear weapons, China today is also regarded as a military power and a potential military superpower. The Ministry of National Defense white paper "China's National Defense" mentioned that China adopts a military strategy of "active defense". China was the third largest arms exporter after the United States and Russia from 2010 to 2014, with an increase of 143% during the period.

The United States, generally called the U.S. Army, is the U.S. Federal Armed Forces. It is the world's strongest military as a whole, with its scale and equipment at the forefront of the world. The U.S. military is divided into five major services, namely the U.S. Army, U.S. Navy, U.S. Air Force, U.S. Marine Corps, and U.S. Coast Guard. The United States has the largest nuclear weapons arsenal in the world and is the only country in the world that has used nuclear weapons in actual combat (it was used in actual combat in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan during World War II). The United States has deployed overseas troops in many countries and regions around the world, totaling more than 230,000. At present, the United States is the country with the most military spending in the world, with a total of 719.3 billion US dollars = 4.53 trillion yuan (in 2012, the exchange rate is calculated based on the current 1:6.3), accounting for about 47% of the world¡¯s total military spending, and its comprehensive military strength is the world¡¯s largest One.

The U.S. Army has 550,000 troops. There are 3 group army headquarters, 4 military headquarters, 10 combat divisions (2 armored divisions, 4 mechanized divisions, 2 light infantry divisions, 1 air assault division, 1 airborne division), 5 aviation brigades , 3 armored cavalry regiments, 6 artillery brigades, 7 Stryker brigades, 9 "Patriots" and 2 "Avengers" air defense missile battalions, 3 independent infantry battalions and 1 airborne special forces.

The US Navy has 331,600 troops (not including the Marine Corps). There are 6 fleets, namely the 2nd Fleet (Atlantic), 3rd Fleet (East, South and North Pacific), 4th Fleet (Central and South American waters), 5th Fleet (Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf, Red Sea), 6th Fleet (Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea), 7th Fleet (Western Pacific, Indian Ocean). There is also a naval transportation command.

The U.S. Air Force and the Navy have almost 333,400 troops, organized into the Air Combat Command and the Air Mobility Command. The Air Combat Command has jurisdiction over 4 air teams (one of which is an intercontinental ballistic missile air force) and 23 flying wings; the Air Mobility Command has jurisdiction over 2 air forces and 13 flying wings.

The US Marine Corps has a strength of 203,600. There are 3 marine divisions, 3 service support battalions, 1 security battalion, and 1 battalion-level embassy guard.

The U.S. Coast Guard has a total of 35,100 people, and its Chinese jobs are 6,000. According to U.S. law, it is a component of the armed forces, usually under the jurisdiction of the Department of Homeland Security.

V. Fundamentals of Nuclear Weapons Strategy

China is a country that has developed high-end weapon technologies such as nuclear weapons, biological and chemical weapons, plasma weapons, high-energy laser weapons, infrasonic weapons, and long-range ballistic missiles. On October 16, 1964, China's first atomic bomb was successfully detonated in Lop Nur, Xinjiang. On June 17, 1967, China's first hydrogen bomb was successfully detonated over the Lop Nur Desert. China joined the Biological Weapons Convention in 1984, signed the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in 1996, and ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention in 1997. my country has announced that it has the least number of nuclear weapons among the five major nuclear powers; as of 2009, the Union of American Scientists estimated that it has 180 standing nuclear warheads and a total of 240 nuclear warheads.

In the United States, at the end of September 2010, the Pentagon publicly stated that it had retained approximately 5,113 nuclear warheads as ready for use, of which 1,968 were strategic nuclear warheads that were ready for operation and deployed at any time. In addition, this figure does not include 4,600 nuclear weapons have been decommissioned and are ready to be dismantled, making it the country with the most nuclear weapons deployed in the world, even 300 more than Russia, which ranks second.

The 2010 report on the use of nuclear weapons stated that the United States will focus on preventing nuclear terrorism and nuclear proliferation. While continuing to reduce nuclear weapons stocks, it will also continue to maintain sufficient weapons. On the one hand, it will maintain a strategic balance with other major nuclear powers to prevent potential nuclear weapons. On the other hand, it also echoes the U.S.¡¯s commitment to protect allied countries. At the same time, the content also mentions that the United States may strike nuclear weapons against countries that are unwilling to abide by the NPT.

The ruling style of the main leaders:

China is our General Secretary Xi Jinping. During his youth, Xi Jinping had personally experienced the turmoil of the Cultural Revolution and learned self-restraint and self-hardening. Today, as the General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the President of China, as well as the Chairman of the Central Committee and the National Military Commission, Xi Jinping is making the whole of China feel his respect for strict discipline. When Xi Jinping came to power five years ago, he has acted vigorously, fighting corruption, strengthening the army and realizing the great rejuvenation goal of the Chinese nation. He is a strong leader.

The United States, as a very successful businessman in American history, was the first president without government work experience. The campaign slogan was America first, and Trump was anti-traditional and anti-establishment. It has been wrong with American liberals and mainstream media for a long time. In the eyes of the mainstream media, he is perverse, rude, narcissistic, arrogant, and "looks not like a man", he is simply a clown. Recently, a book called "Fire and Fury: Inside the Trump White House" is extremely popular in the United States. The author claims to interview hundreds of people close to Trump, and outlines a irritable, extremely insecure, and hiding at night. Trump watched TV wildly in his bedroom and wandered in the White House in his nightgown in the middle of the night.

Even more fierce is the Western mainstream media. According to the Washington Post, according to their statistics, Trump has told at least 1950 lies in the past year. On average, 5.3 lies are told every day; the senior political website " "Capital Hill Blue" believes that Trump¡¯s life is a lie: the bull market, Obama¡¯s eavesdropping, Hillary¡¯s conspiracy, the Russian gate...Even Trump¡¯s iconic hairstyle is fake, which is the most exaggerated in history. "Comb-over" (comb-over, refers to the action of combing hair to cover up baldness);

But the facts cannot be denied that Trump's promise to promote further recovery of the US economy has been "fulfilled." The growth rate of the U.S. economy in the first three quarters of 2017 increased quarter by quarter, reaching 3.2% in the third quarter and expected to reach 2.5% throughout the year. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, the lowest level in 17 years. The U.S. stock Dow Jones index has been rising steadily. It is currently 25,000 points, which is 25% higher than before he took office. This is certainly related to the Trump administration's "de-financial supervision" and "pro-market" policies, but it is also to a considerable extent. It is due to the continued fermentation of Obama's policies for several years. President Trump is also a strong leader, and his cards are hard to predict. In fact, Trump is a very flexible leader. From his high-pressure sanctions on North Korea and even aggressive military strikes, he can be flexible to accept the invitation of North Korea¡¯s supreme leader, Xiao Jin, and he is preparing to hold bilateral summit talks between the United States and North Korea in May this year. To solve the problem of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

Throughout the above analysis, based on my long-term follow-up study of Sino-US relations, I believe that the direction of Sino-US relations before and after the introduction of the Taiwan Travel Law by the United States is unlikely to be earth-shattering. For example, we take the initiative to lower or terminate diplomatic relations or announce immediately. Similar to the diplomatic force of our senior diplomats in the United States and some think tank scholars to rule Taiwan, this is because although the leaders of the two countries are strong leaders, they have to consider the changes in the overall world pattern and the above-mentioned fundamentals, as well as the needs of their respective countries. Realize the dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and the United States first. To achieve goals and ideals, you need to maintain the status quo. The reason is very simple, three words: harmony is the most precious.

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