The possibility of a cold war to a hot war

LI,JIN WEI

20210409


Over the past year or so, the actual trends of major countries in the world, especially the two major powers of China and the United States, regardless of the fact that officials from all walks of life, many experts, scholars, and high-level representatives believed that the United States and China would not enter the Cold War at all, but the actual trends did not. The optimism in imagination, the facts have gradually confirmed the author¡¯s pre-judgment. The current situation is no longer an ironclad Cold War issue, but whether there is a possibility of a hot war in the future. If this is possible, the development trend is not between the United States and China. The problem is a multi-country problem. Such multi-country is a problem of forming military blocs or military alliances. If this is the case, the possibility of hot wars exists. Now let me analyze to readers why the possibility of a hot war exists:


1. China and the United States draw red lines and prepare for war at the same time.
At present, China and the United States draw red lines each other, and the strategic game has become fierce. At the critical moment of war and peace, where the most core interests are involved, China does not hesitate to fight, but the United States still has many scruples. It is difficult to fight against China on the Taiwan issue and face the risks of war directly!
For more than 40 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, whenever there were fluctuations in the relations between the two countries in the past, the two sides would reiterate the "one-China principle" of the three joint newspapers, and the Chinese side would emphasize that this is the political basis of the relations between the two countries. Well, it doesn't matter if you maintain a vague position, anyway, there is no open challenge to this red line. In the past few years, however, the Trump administration has dashed against the "One China" red line. Apart from large-scale arms sales to Taiwan, it has publicly broken the vague position and declared that the US's "One China policy" is different from China. The US-Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Items on Taiwan Assurance is the cornerstone of US-Taiwan relations, downplaying the three Sino-US joint communiqu¨¦s; breaking the taboo of unofficial exchanges between the United States and Taiwan, frequently sending high-level diplomatic officials at ministerial level and even deputy secretary of state to visit Taiwan until it is announced that restrictions on U.S.-Taiwan exchanges will be lifted. The posture must cross the "One China" red line. At the same time, China began its strongest counterattack in history, including not recognizing the so-called "central line of the strait", a large number of military aircraft flying over the center line of the strait in a normal manner, breaking through the so-called "Southwest Air Defense Identification Zone", and uninterrupted naval operations around the Taiwan Strait. Military exercises. The Chinese government has issued more severe warnings of "Don't say what you say is unpredictable"-this has always been accompanied by a pre-war warning issued by wars in history, vowing to "stop war with war"! As a result, China has further strengthened the "one China" red line in Sino-U.S. relations, telling the U.S. and Taiwan clearly and unmistakably that they will not hesitate to fight to safeguard national sovereignty!
After Biden took office, he took over the Trump administration's policy of containing China in American diplomacy. His team is no less inferior than the Trump administration, and even worse. The iconic indicator is that the United States has focused its main objective on China's sovereignty, and the most fierce one is the Taiwan issue. On the other hand, the US Congress has promulgated various bills involving China's sovereignty against China's Hong Kong, Tibet, and Xinjiang. On the Taiwan issue, it has not converged in the slightest. The most provocative move was that Biden publicly invited Taiwan's representative to the United States to attend the day of his inauguration, and then repeatedly declared his commitment to Taiwan "solid as a rock."
The Chinese side subsequently reiterated the "Anti-Secession Law" and warned more severely: "Taiwan independence" means war! The Chinese People's Liberation Army has asked the whole army to prepare for war! At the same time, continue to maintain a posture of deterrence against the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan¡¯s "Southwest Airspace" fan page records show that in the first two months of 2021, PLA military aircraft flew into Taiwan¡¯s airspace for 57 days, almost every day entering Taiwan¡¯s designated aviation identification zone, with a total of 156 "broadcast evictions"; the Navy; The Taiyuan ship, Hangzhou ship, Taizhou ship, and Zhoushan ship formed a fleet to carry out a live-fire shooting exercise in a certain area of the East China Sea. The Ministry of National Defense of China clearly stated that the PLA's exercise is a legitimate and necessary action taken in response to the current situation across the Taiwan Strait and safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity. It also warned: The Chinese People's Liberation Army will take all necessary measures to resolutely defeat any form of "Taiwan independence" separatist conspiracy, and firmly defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
In response, the Biden administration has intensified its efforts on the Taiwan issue. When U.S. Secretary of State Brinken attended the hearing of the U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee on March 10, he publicly called Taiwan a "country", breaking the taboo of the tacit understanding between China and the United States. Immediately afterwards, the Biden administration set up a red line for the use of force against China: including China's military rule over Taiwan.
A retired U.S. military general who was the highest commander of the NATO Allied Forces, Stavridis recently wrote an article that the National Security Team of U.S. President Biden has set a series of red lines that will respond with military actions, including China¡¯s "invasion" of Taiwan and Taiwan by force. Outlying islands. Stavridis pointed out that one of the elements of the military component is a series of "red lines" that the United States will respond with military means. He said that these red lines include "China or North Korea attacking the United States and its allies with nuclear, biological and chemical weapons; China's armed invasion of Taiwan and outlying islands, including economic blockade of Taiwan or large-scale cyber attacks on Taiwan's public infrastructure and institutions." According to Stave According to the information disclosed by Readys, the red line of the Biden administration also includes the Diaoyu Islands and the surrounding East China Sea economic waters, and even includes "China has taken major hostile actions in the South China Sea to further develop and militarize the islands and reefs in order to deploy troops against other sovereign voices." Somalia; hindering the implementation of full-scale free navigation operations between the United States and allied navies; and China's attack on the sovereign territories and military installations of the United States' allies." He said that the strategic, operational and tactical teams of the US Indo-Pacific Command are drawing up new plans for the deployment of the US military, and related new options will be submitted to the Department of Defense as one of the new Secretary Austin's comprehensive "situation assessment." He said that under the strategic context of the United States and China, the Marine Corps will resolutely guard the ocean and be able to sail to the South China Sea and penetrate deep into the island chain that China relies on for defense. He pointed out that once deep into this, the Marine Corps will use armed drones, online attack capabilities, powerful special forces "Marine Raiders" (Marine Raiders), anti-aircraft missiles, and even weapons of hunting ships to attack the Chinese sea. Military power, even attacking China¡¯s land bases of operations. For example, China's militarized artificial islands and reefs in the South China Sea are attractive targets, and in essence, they are maritime strikes.
According to the "red line" set by the Biden administration, the United States will join its allies, including NATO allies, and even Singapore and Vietnam, to participate in such military deployment operations. "The foundation of the overall U.S. maritime strategic posture is the establishment of a global maritime alliance to counter the high-strength troops of the Chinese People's Liberation Army." The Biden administration has already begun operations, including the holding of a summit of leaders of the US, Japan, Australia and India "Quadruple Security Forum" (QUAD) , Has entered the leading strategic role in the Indo-Pacific; the US Secretary of State and the Secretary of Defense have personally visited Japan and South Korea to coordinate their positions. After the 2+2 talks between the United States and Japan, a statement was issued, naming and accusing China's behavior of "inconsistent with the existing international order, and brought political, economic, military, and technological challenges to the US-Japan alliance and the international community." The statement also attacked China's recently promulgated "Maritime Police Law" as a "destructive state of affairs." Brinken said at a press conference after the talks, "When China uses coercion or aggression to achieve its goals, the two countries will counterattack if necessary." Facing the current situation in the Taiwan Strait, neighboring Japan and Australia have made it clear that they will support the US military in the event of a war in Taiwan. International public opinion generally believes that this is the strongest statement against China in the previous US-Japan 2+2 talks!
It can be seen from this that the red lines drawn by China and the United States are all concentrated on the Taiwan issue, and the relationship between China and the United States stands at a new historical starting point. China and the United States draw a red line on each other. Will the subsequent fierce clashes trigger military conflicts between the two countries? It is impossible for China to retreat half a step-if it retreats, it will lose Taiwan forever, and it will always be locked in the first island chain. After more than 70 years, China has not been unified yet, so how can we talk about the great cause of rejuvenation? ! It is also very difficult for the United States to compromise. Otherwise, it will not only lose the bargaining chip of Taiwan, not to mention the collapse of the first island chain that has been carefully built for more than 70 years, it will also lose its entire Asian allies, and it is very likely that it will lose the opportunity to dominate the Asia-Pacific.


2.Both diplomacy and sanctions

After the talks between China and the United States in Alaska on March 20, U.S. Secretary of State Brinken rushed to the European Union and NATO on the 22nd to coordinate the tough positions of the member states on China. NATO announced the opening of a new chapter in US-EU relations. In response to China¡¯s challenge, the European Union immediately announced sanctions against Chinese officials. The United States, Britain, and stepped up to follow suit. The European Parliament also announced a suspension of reviewing the China-Europe investment agreement...; when he pulled Japan from East Asia against China, and after a showdown with China in Alaska, he did not stop He rushed to Europe to lobby against China, arrived in Brussels on March 22, participated in the NATO foreign ministers meeting on 23-24, and discussed with NATO foreign ministers how to deal with China's challenges.
On the eve of Blincoln's visit to NATO, US lawmakers introduced a bill requiring the Biden administration to treat Taiwan as a community member of a "NATO+" country in order to strengthen US-Taiwan defense cooperation. The bill proposed by Perry, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the House of Representatives, is called the "Taiwan PLUS Act". Its purpose is to make the United States treat Taiwan as a member of the "NATO Plus" other countries and enjoy the same treatment as these countries in terms of arms sales.
U.S. Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasian Affairs Rick said at a briefing to the media that Brinken will coordinate with EU leaders on China's position. According to the European and American media, his European formation was fruitful. The first is NATO standing in line. NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg set the tone for relations with China. On the one hand, he said that the Biden administration is firmly committed to "transatlantic solidarity and cooperation" and opened a new chapter in US-Europe relations; on the other hand, he publicly declared that China must be dealt with. . In an interview with European media, he warned that China's rise will bring new opportunities to NATO members, but China is a "big country that does not share our values." He accused China of handling Hong Kong and human rights issues, accused China of disrupting the rule-based order, and issued a warning: China is getting closer and closer to us, and NATO has to deal with "the consequences for the security of our regional allies and the global "The deviation of the balance of power" is the issue.
"Allied Diplomacy" first joint sanctions against China. On the day Brinken arrived in Europe, the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Canada almost simultaneously announced sanctions against Chinese officials on the human rights issue in Xinjiang, China. The EU was the first to issue a statement sanctions four officials in Xinjiang, China and one entity. European media said that this is the first joint action by the United States and its allies on the China issue since the Biden administration took office. It is also the first time that the European Union and the United Kingdom have imposed sanctions on China on human rights issues since 1989. The United Kingdom and Canada also immediately announced the same sanctions lists and measures as the European Union. The United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada all emphasized in their statements that the current round of sanctions is the result of mutual cooperation. US Secretary of State Blinken said that the US sanctions are also a solidarity with allies in this round of sanctions. He said in the statement: "A united transatlantic response sends a strong signal to those who violate or trample on international human rights. We will consult with like-minded partners and take further action. We will continue to stand with our allies around the world. Together, we call for an immediate end to China¡¯s crimes and justice for many victims.¡±
Recall that when the Trump administration announced sanctions on Chinese officials, Western allies did not follow up, but the Biden administration did. This is a serious signal for China. It marks the success of Biden's anti-China alliance with allies, and China will face a Western "wolf siege" in the future. Gu Julun, a law professor at Hofstra University in the United States, believes that although the actual effect of the sanctions may not be obvious to the four sanctioned targets, the willingness of the European Union, the United Kingdom and Canada to act together with the United States still has important meaning. The question is, how many countries will join the action next? A bad sign is that the US Secretary of State Blincol also issued a joint statement with the foreign ministers of Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the United Kingdom that afternoon, unanimously condemning China's human rights actions in Xinjiang.
The EU rebelled against the imminent changes in the China-EU Investment Agreement. The biggest variable is that the European Parliament temporarily cancelled the review of the China-EU Comprehensive Investment Agreement due to dissatisfaction with China's counter-sanctions. When the European Union announced sanctions on Chinese officials, China quickly responded by announcing sanctions on 10 individuals and 4 entities in Europe, including several members of the European Parliament, and some well-known European think tanks and scholars. They have all accused China on human rights issues. The leaders of the European Union and the European Parliament expressed support for many members of the Parliament who were sanctioned by China. At the same time, the European Parliament cancelled a review meeting on the China-EU Investment Agreement. On March 22, the President of the European Parliament Sassori issued a statement on social media, expressing "firm support" to the five parliamentarians sanctioned by China and the Human Rights Group of the European Parliament, "I reiterate to them and other sanctioned EU personnel and entities "On the same day, the European Parliament¡¯s International Trade Committee Vice-Chairman Gula stated in an email that "in view of the latest developments in the relationship between the EU and China today, especially China¡¯s unacceptable sanctions," the European Parliament decided to cancel the original schedule on Tuesday. (March 23) A review meeting on the signing of the China-EU Comprehensive Investment Agreement CAI. He also said in a tweet, "The EU is about values and principles, whether within the EU or on a global scale." In December last year, China and the EU reached a compromise in a number of key areas that could not be resolved for a long time. China-EU Comprehensive Investment Agreement.
China summoned the EU representatives to take a hard-line countermeasure. Regarding the European Union¡¯s first sanctions against Chinese officials, China adopted a copy of the ruling. On the night of March 22, it summoned the head of the EU delegation to China, Yu Bai, on behalf of the Chinese government on the EU foreign ministers¡¯ meeting a few hours ago. The unilateral decision on sanctions against China made a solemn protest and strong condemnation to the European side, and notified China of relevant countermeasures. The website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China quoted Qin Gang as saying: "The EU has imposed sanctions on China based on lies and false information concerning Xinjiang, which are inconsistent with reality, lawless and unreasonable." Qin Gang said, "China urges the EU to recognize the seriousness of the error and Correct mistakes and stop confrontation so as not to cause more damage to China-EU relations." He said that China's will and determination to safeguard national sovereignty, security, and development interests is unwavering.
On March 23, China¡¯s State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that a few Western powers have been slandering and accusing China in the past few days, "The era when we can make up a story and make a lie to interfere in China¡¯s internal affairs is long gone." According to the press release of the China-Russia Foreign Ministers¡¯ meeting published on the website of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi said that ¡°manipulation by a few Western powers does not represent the international community at all. Regardless of the east and west winds, I will not move. These perverse acts can never stop China¡¯s progress pace". People¡¯s Daily also published an article titled ¡°Lies Can¡¯t Change the Truth¡±, saying that a small number of Western countries are advised to abandon ideological prejudice, stop political manipulation and double standards on human rights issues, and stop using Xinjiang-related issues to harm China. Interests and interference in China¡¯s internal affairs. According to Reuters, when asked about the EU's recent sanctions against China, Wang Yi said that any unilateral sanctions have no basis in international law. "The so-called sanctions based on lies cannot be accepted. I think all countries should stand up against it." . Wang Yi made the above remarks at a joint press conference after the meeting between the Chinese and Russian foreign ministers.
The Russian Foreign Minister's visit to China is a real strategic cooperation. On the day Brinken arrived in Europe, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov started a visit to China. The US and Russian foreign ministers had one east and one west on the same day, which was quite interesting. Both China and Russia need to get rid of Western sanctions and strategic containment. According to information released by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Lavrov has arrived in China, and State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi will hold talks with him in Guilin, Guangxi, China. At present, the Biden administration is opening a bow to China and Russia at the same time, and relations between the three countries have deteriorated at the same time. Lavrov's visit to China during this critical time window shows his willingness to unite against the United States. Russian media analyzed the time point of Lavrov's visit to China and believed that Russia-China diplomatic relations are becoming more comprehensive and the areas of strategic cooperation are expanding. This trend did not appear after Biden took office, but his decision has accelerated the development of the situation, especially since he is focusing on "alliance politics." Although the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs denies that Lavrov's visit to China at this time is a "special arrangement" after the high-level Sino-US dialogue in Anchorage, even though the Chinese side stated that Lavrov's visit to China is not aimed at any specific country, China-Russia relations are "open and open and open "But at the same time, it is emphasized that China and Russia will promote a comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination in the new era. "Russia Today" wrote in the article "Biden's attack on China and Russia may be counterproductive, which is pushing Beijing and Moscow closer." As Biden is keen to revisit the old alliance of the United States, China and Russia are more than ever before. There is more motivation for cooperation. All signs indicate that they are prepared to do so. Lavrov spoke straightforwardly to the Chinese media before embarking on his visit to China: China is a "true strategic partner"! Lavrov was interviewed by CCTV reporters and focused on issues such as Sino-Russian relations and frequent sanctions by the United States. He believed that the United States and other Western countries have abandoned traditional diplomatic etiquette and ways of dealing with affairs.
Lavrov said that Russia and China were forced to leave Washington for independent development, so that the United States' attempts to curb technological development would fail. The Global Times pointed out that the timing of Lavrov's visit to China is of special significance, because after face-to-face communication between China and the United States, the first country that China chose to share information and views on important issues was Russia. Western media believe that this is implying that Lavrov's trip symbolizes that the close cooperation between China and Russia will counter the influence of "the United States makes trouble." On March 22, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Guilin, Guangxi. The two parties first conducted strategic communication on international and regional issues of common concern and reached broad consensus. During the period, the two sides briefed each other on the current status of their respective relations with the United States. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China stated that the foreign ministers of China and Russia informed each other about the current status of their respective relations with the United States, and stated that the international community believes that the United States should stop pulling "small circles" and engage in group confrontation, stop unilateral bullying, and stop interfering in other countries' internal affairs. On March 22, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying stated at a regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that Russia¡¯s Foreign Minister Lavrov¡¯s visit to China, China and Russia will discuss bilateral relations and cooperation on international and regional issues, including in the near future. In-depth communication on a wide range of topics including high-level exchanges between the two sides. Hua Chunying said, "I believe this meeting will definitely promote the further development of Sino-Russian relations." Some scholars believe that Lavrov's visit is intended to highlight the unity of China and Russia; but even if the relationship between China and Russia is highly strained with the United States, it is still unlikely that the two countries will form an alliance against the United States.


3. Simultaneous military exercises and preparations.
On April 4, the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning and five frigates passed through an important waterway near Japan to the Pacific Ocean. The Chinese warship's move occurred as the U.S. Navy strengthened its cooperation with the Quartet partners Japan, India and Australia in the Indo-Pacific region. According to a report by the Nikkei Asian Review, the joint staff said that at about 8 am on April 4, the aircraft carrier battle group was discovered about 470 kilometers southwest of the Male and Female Islands in Nagasaki Prefecture, Japan. Subsequently, the aircraft carrier battle group passed through the Miyako Strait, a 250-kilometer-wide waterway between Okinawa Island and Miyako Island. This is the first time that the Liaoning ship has passed this waterway since April 2020, and it was also a few days after the US Navy and the Australian Navy conducted joint exercises in the East Pacific.
The Japanese surveillance report is like this: Among the six Chinese warships, in addition to the Liaoning ship, the other 5 warships are the Type 055 destroyer Nanchang, the Type 052D destroyer Chengdu and Taiyuan, and the Type 054A frigate Huanggang and Type 901. Comprehensive supply ship Hulun Lake. Among them, the Nanchang is the largest Renhai class destroyer of the Chinese Navy. It sailed in the waters near Japan for a week in March. The Japanese Joint Staff stated that the Japanese side deployed the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force Akizuki-class destroyer JS Suzutsuki (JS Suzutsuki) and P-1 and P3C anti-submarine patrol aircraft to collect information and monitor the movements of Chinese ships. The photos provided by the Joint Staff show that the Liaoning ship is carrying a helicopter, which is suspected of being a J-15 fighter jet. The Joint Staff added that a Chinese Y-9 (Y-9) military transport aircraft flew over the Miyako Strait on Sunday, and Japan sent a jet fighter into the air to respond.
Japan¡¯s Ministry of Defense¡¯s Integrated Staff and Supervision Department also released information that a Chinese Y-9 patrol aircraft flew over the East China Sea and Pacific Ocean waters on the same day and issued a schematic diagram of its flight trajectory. The Japanese Self-Defense Force urgently dispatched fighter jets to respond. According to the analysis of the Ministry of Defense of Japan, the voyage of China's six ships is part of Beijing's enhanced maritime operations in the East China Sea, and Japan is stepping up monitoring of the movements of these six ships.

The United States and India held military exercises in the East Indian Ocean region. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (Lloyd Austin) visited India not long ago, and then the Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier battle group conducted joint multi-domain combat exercises with the Indian Navy and Air Force in the Indian Ocean from March 28 to 29. The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, USS Bunker Hill and USS Russell (USS Russell) fought with the Indian frigate "Shivalik" and aircraft from the 222 Squadron of the Indian Air Force. These aircraft were called "Tiger Shark." The Indian Navy stated in an official statement that in order to integrate the coordination and interoperability of the INS Shivalik-class frigate (INS Shivalik) and the U.S. Seahawk helicopter during the "Malabar 2020" exercise, India The anti-submarine aircraft P-8I and the USS "Roosevelt" aircraft carrier strike group participated in a joint exercise in the eastern Indian Ocean. "In the first enhanced joint exercise, fighter jets of the Indian Air Force also participated in the exercise. This gave the Indian Air Force the opportunity to conduct air interception and air defense exercises with the US Navy near the Indian coast," the statement added. The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command emphasized the strengthening of joint multi-domain operations, including land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace convergence capabilities, and included the Indian Air Force in exercises to advance this directive.

The U.S. Navy conducted exercises with the Japanese and Australian navies. On March 30, the US Pacific Fleet announced that the USS Blue Ridge amphibious command ship, the flagship of the US Seventh Fleet, and the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force¡¯s King Kong-class Aegis destroyer JS Kongo had carried out a joint operation in the East China Sea. Exercises to test the maritime cooperation skills and communication capabilities of the two countries.
The US Pacific Fleet stated that the content of the exercise includes fleet navigation, communications, and maritime maneuvers, with the aim of enhancing and improving cooperation and interoperability between the two parties. The uniqueness of this exercise is that the carrier-based aircraft on the Blue Ridge also participated. The helicopters on the ship flew in coordination with the ship formation and landed on the Japanese destroyer Kongo during the exercise.
After this exercise, the U.S. Navy and the Australian Navy immediately conducted a two-day joint exercise.
At the end of March and early April, the USS John Finn and the Australian Hobart-class air combat destroyer HMAS Sydney participated in collective navigation exercises off the coast of Southern California to improve interoperability.

The "South China Sea Strategic Situational Awareness" platform of the Institute of Oceanography at Peking University in China announced on the 3rd that in accordance with the "AIS (Automatic Ship Identification System)" signal, at around midnight on April 3, an Aegis-class guided-missile destroyer of the U.S. Navy, Ma The Sting appeared in the waters near the mouth of the Yangtze River in the East China Sea and sailed south. This destroyer set off from the port of Yokosuka in Japan on March 27 and headed directly to the East China Sea. The intention to pressure China is very obvious. The US "Roosevelt" aircraft carrier strike group passed through the Strait of Malacca on the morning of April 4 and entered the South China Sea. This is the third time the Roosevelt has entered the South China Sea this year. The "South China Sea Strategic Situational Awareness" platform believes that recently, the actions of US aircraft carriers have suddenly increased and their regularity has decreased, and the meaning of actual combat deployment has been significantly enhanced.


A huge military alliance centered on the United States is rapidly unfolding. On the 4th, the USS "Roosevelt" strike group suddenly entered the South China Sea, which caused various think tanks to be shocked, believing that the recent actions of the US aircraft carrier have become sudden and less regular, and the significance of actual combat deployment has been significantly strengthened. The strike group includes warships such as the "Roosevelt" ship, the "Russell" destroyer, and the "Bunker Hill" cruiser. This is also the third time the "Roosevelt" ship has been active in the South China Sea this year.
On January 23 this year, the USS "Roosevelt" aircraft carrier strike group entered the South China Sea. During the activities of the aircraft carrier in the South China Sea, various military aircraft activities of the US military continued to strengthen. On the same day, seven reconnaissance aircraft, including five P-8A anti-submarine patrol aircraft, one EP-3E electronic reconnaissance aircraft, and one E-2C carrier-based early warning aircraft, also launched operations in the South China Sea.
The next day, the US military had accumulated at least 9 military positions in the South China Sea: 4 P-8A anti-submarine patrol aircraft, 1 P-3C anti-submarine patrol aircraft, 1 E-2C carrier-based early warning aircraft, 1 CL-604 reconnaissance aircraft and KC-135R 2 aerial tankers.
On February 4, a US combat ship passed through the Taiwan Strait from north to south, and then continued to travel south. The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command stated that the U.S. Aegis cruiser Bunker Hill completed a pass-through exercise with the Anzac in the Indian Ocean on March 10, demonstrating the interoperability of the U.S. and Australian forces and the relationship between the two countries. Instance.
On the evening of February 8, French Defense Minister Florence Parly stated that the French nuclear-powered submarine "SNA Emeraude" was passing through the South China Sea with the support ship "BSAM Seine". In the sea area, photos of two ships at sea are also attached.
On February 9, not only the "Roosevelt" aircraft carrier strike group came to the South China Sea, but the "Nimitz" aircraft carrier also arrived in the South China Sea. A number of exercises were conducted in the South China Sea that day, aimed at improving the ability of coordinated operations among various naval resources. And command and control capabilities.
The Pacific Fleet means that the ships and aircraft of the two strike groups coordinate operations in areas with heavy traffic, demonstrating the ability of the US Navy to operate in challenging environments.
On February 17, the USS Russell (DDG59) entered China¡¯s territorial waters delineated by the Nansha Islands; on February 25, the US destroyer crossed the Taiwan Strait; on March 11, a US destroyer sailed through the Taiwan Strait. Drive north to south.
The US Navy's Seventh Fleet stated in a statement on March 10 that the Arleigh Burke-class "John Finn" guided-missile destroyer carried out a scheduled military mission that day and passed through the Taiwan Strait. The statement said that as the largest forward deployment fleet of the US Navy, the Seventh Fleet often interacts with 35 maritime countries in the region to maintain the freedom and openness of the Indo-Pacific region.
On March 15, the US Department of Defense issued a public statement stating that "Description of the Situation in the Indo-Pacific by Officials from the Department of Defense" directly pointed to China and issued a warning to Chinese leaders. Some military commentators said that the statement issued by the US military will almost declare war next. After the U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin took office, he quickly asked for an assessment of the Indo-Pacific region and issued such a statement. It was quite unusual.
On April 7th, China¡¯s Liaoning aircraft carrier battle group was also trained near Taiwan and was subordinate to The USS John S. McCain, the Burke-class Aegis destroyer of the US Seventh Fleet, passed through the Taiwan Strait. At the same time, the spokesperson of the US State Department Price reiterated that the United States' commitment to Taiwan was "solid as a rock."

The spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of National Defense Ren Guoqiangqiang said before: "China has always respected the freedom of navigation and overflight enjoyed by all countries in the South China Sea in accordance with international law, but firmly opposes this as an excuse to endanger the sovereignty and security of coastal countries."

In response to the US State Department¡¯s claim that China was engaged in "intimidation" in the Taiwan Strait, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian asked on April 8: Did the Chinese warship go to the Gulf of Mexico to show off its power? He emphasized that China has never intended to intimidate anyone, but it is not afraid of intimidation; China does not want to intimidate anyone, but the intimidation of anyone is useless. China has a firm will and sufficient ability to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

At the same time, the United States is stepping up cooperation with allies to form a new defense system. Britain, France, and Germany have announced that they will send naval vessels through the South China Sea to exercise their right to "freedom of navigation." Warships from the United States and Canada have also sailed in the South China Sea.
Canadian naval ships passed through the Taiwan Strait in January to join the maritime forces of Australia, Japan and the United States that are conducting military exercises in nearby waters.

French Defense Minister Florence Parly also announced that the nuclear-powered attack submarine "Emerald" and "Seine-Marne" support ships have recently passed the South China Sea.
British Prime Minister Johnson also announced in the House of Commons that the aircraft carrier "Queen Elizabeth" will be stationed in the South China Sea.
German government officials stated that a frigate of the country will head to Asia in August and will pass through the disputed South China Sea on its return journey, becoming the first German warship to pass through the South China Sea since 2002.
A photo uploaded by the Australian Navy on March 25 shows that the frigate Anzac and the supply ship Sirius are conducting exercises in the South China Sea and will participate in a number of bilateral and multilateral activities, including a French-led exercise in the North Indian Ocean.
The National Security Team of the United States is also in close contact with NATO to jointly deal with more challenges in the Indo-Pacific region and other regions. On March 23, NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg and visiting U.S. Secretary of State Brinken mentioned China¡¯s challenges many times when they attended a forum.

Beginning on April 5, the "quartet" of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia will participate in the 2021 "La Perouse" joint military exercise to be held in the Bay of Bengal, led by France.
The French Embassy in New Delhi previously stated in a statement that this military exercise will provide an opportunity for the high-end naval forces of the five like-minded nations to develop closer ties, hone their skills, and be free and open throughout. The Indo-Pacific region promotes maritime cooperation.
France and the four-party security dialogue mechanism (QUAD) member states, the United States, Japan, Australia, and India, started a three-day joint military exercise in the Bay of Bangladesh on Monday (April 5). Analysts said the move is to counter China's expanding military activities in the Indo-Pacific region. The Indian Ministry of Defense said in a statement: "The exercise will be conducted in the East Indian Ocean from April 5 to 7, 2021. During the three-day maritime exercise, the Indian Navy's ships and aircraft will compete with the French Navy and the Royal Australian Navy. , Japan¡¯s Maritime Self-Defense Force and the U.S. Navy¡¯s ships and aircraft are conducting exercises at sea.¡± The statement also said that the exercises include surface warfare, air defense and air defense exercises, weapon shooting exercises, cross-deck flying operations, tactical exercises, and maritime replenishment. Complex and advanced naval operations. "This exercise will reflect a high degree of coordination, coordination and interoperability among friendly forces." The statement said, "The participation of the Indian Navy in this exercise demonstrates the common values with the friendly forces, ensuring freedom of navigation, and is committed to building an open and inclusive India. Taihe¡¯s rule-based international order.¡± Pankaj Jha, a professor of defense and strategic studies at OP Jindal Global University in India, said in an interview with the Nikkei Asian Review that the military The greater goal of the exercise is to establish ties in two aspects: the France-Australia-India trilateral mechanism, and the cooperative relations between the member states of the four-party security dialogue mechanism and France in the Indian Ocean.

Australian Defense Minister Dutton welcomed the exercise. He said Australia¡¯s involvement highlighted the importance of establishing and maintaining strong naval relations in the region. The Australian Task Force Commander Mark Hammond said that the military exercise "will demonstrate the complementary capabilities of our partner countries and highlight our common commitment to stability and security in the Indo-Pacific region." And strategic affairs analyst NC Bipindra told Nikkei Asia: "The members of the four-party security dialogue mechanism conducted multilateral military exercises. This move has not been seen by those who pay close attention to this field. People ignore it." He told the Nikkei Asian Review: "It is clear that China will closely observe what happens at home." This is an indicator of how the geopolitical dynamics of the region will unfold in the future. "Bipindra said, "There have been rumors that the four-party security dialogue mechanism will become the NATO in Asia. "

The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson responded to the news of the joint military exercises of various countries on Tuesday (April 6). He said: "China has always believed that military cooperation between countries should be conducive to regional peace and stability."

Air Force Colonel Zhang Chunhui, spokesman for the Eastern Theater Command, said that the USS McCain guided missile destroyer through the Taiwan Strait on the 7th, and the Chinese People¡¯s Liberation Army tracked and monitored it throughout the Eastern Theater. This move by the US ship sent the wrong signal to "Taiwan independence," deliberately disrupting the regional situation and endangering the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait. We express our firm opposition. The theater troops will take strict precautions and vigilance, respond to all threats and provocations at any time, and faithfully perform their duties and missions.

Looking at the current major armed conflicts that are likely to affect global significance and lead to possible future theaters, three locations are more sensitive. They are the South China Sea, Ukraine, and the Taiwan Strait. Since the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea are China¡¯s core interests, they are more urgent than the Taiwan Strait. The South China Sea is mainly facing the issue of freedom of navigation. The Chinese government has repeatedly stated that the stationing of troops on the South China Sea is a matter of China and does not affect the navigation of other countries The issue of freedom, however, the Western countries led by the United States routinely dispatch aircraft carriers and various warships to traverse the South China Sea in a high-profile manner to maintain what they believe is international waters to ensure freedom of navigation, so today only the current situation facing the Taiwan Strait will be described. .

"Global Times" editor-in-chief Hu Xijin proposed on Weibo on May 8, 2020 that China needs 1,000 nuclear bombs and 100 Dongfeng41 to curb US strategic ambitions and impulse toward China, which caused a great sensation and also caused the West. Alertness. According to a report released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in June 2019, China currently has 290 nuclear bombs, ranking fourth in the world, behind the United States, Russia, and France. In the SIPRI report, the United States currently has 1,750 nuclear bombs in operational deployment, and another 4,435 in the "standby" state; Russia currently has 1,600 in combat and 4,900 in the "standby" state; France currently has 280 2 are in combat status and 20 are in "standby" status; China has a total of 290, but it is unknown how many are in combat status and how many are in "standby" status. Therefore, in terms of the total number, China is in fourth place, but if the total number is counted as a combat state, it slightly surpasses France and ranks third. Britain has 120 in combat and 80 in "standby" status. According to the nuclear arms control agreement, the "standby" state refers to the separation from the vehicle and the removal of the fuze, and it does not necessarily mean that the operational state cannot be restored.

Military is about strength. Behind diplomacy is the military. Military conflicts and outbreaks can be triggered by a trivial matter or a sudden attack. After a war, the victorious country can make war fortune. You can plunder the assets of the defeated country, re-establish a new order, and even re-divide the territory and rule the defeated country with your own will. It can also enter the peaceful era for half a century or a century or longer, but the war is cruel and is based on a large-scale economy. At the cost of destruction and loss of life, the world after World War II in 1945 was in a peaceful environment. Conflicts between small countries are inevitable, but it is different for large countries. This is because modern warfare is the era of nuclear weapons, and its destructive power is well known. China¡¯s nuclear arsenal can destroy our planet many times, so we must avoid war to continue peace.

Former US Secretary of State Pompeo has repeatedly publicly advocated the establishment of "Asian NATO" and advocated that the partnership under the US "Indo-Pacific Strategy" framework can be developed from bilateral to multilateral. Under this strategic thinking, U.S. Republican Representative Scott Perry has introduced a bill to encourage the U.S. administration to treat Taiwan as a member of NATO Plus, in order to strengthen U.S.-Taiwan defense cooperation. The current "NATO+" countries include Japan, Australia, South Korea, Israel and New Zealand. Earlier, some US congressmen advocated that India should be a member of "NATO+" and that "NATO Plus 5" should be expanded to "NATO Plus 6". Pei Li, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the US House of Representatives, proposed a bill called the "Taiwan PLUS Act" on March 19. The purpose is to make the United States treat Taiwan as a member of the "NATO+" for arms sales and protection. Enjoy the same treatment as these countries. If such a bill is passed by the U.S. Congress and signed and approved by U.S. President Biden, it means that the hot war is not far away. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian previously stated that the root cause of the current tension and turmoil in cross-strait relations is that the DPP authorities refuse to recognize the "92 Consensus" that embodies the one-China principle, and step up their association with external forces and continue to seek "independence." provocative. China's position on the Taiwan issue is consistent and clear. There is only one China in the world, and Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinese territory. China is unwavering in its determination to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and resolutely oppose "Taiwan independence" and interference by external forces.

Hot war is possible, but not impossible. The situation is stronger than human beings. The time limit is in the hands of all parties connected to the Taiwan Strait. Peace is the best choice. This choice requires sufficient wisdom and foresight.
The far-sighted good friend of the Chinese people and former U.S. Secretary of State Kissinger recently hoped that the leaders of China and the United States could understand each other, otherwise the atmosphere of the First World War would already be in place. A year ago Kissinger also said that it is difficult for China and the United States to return to the old friendship era, and the storm is just before our eyes.
The author very much agrees with Kissinger's latest point of view. Maintaining world peace is the highest wisdom of the people of the global village.