论中美关系演变
李锦维
自 1979 年建交以来，中美关系发生了重大变化。过去四十四年，两国经历了经济、政治和安全动态的复杂相互作用过程，从而塑造了双边互动。本研究论文旨在全面分析 1979 年至今中美关系的演变，重点关注影响这两个全球大国之间关系的关键事件、里程碑和动态。 本文第一部分将概述特定时期内的中美关系。它将研究塑造两国关系轨迹的重大事件和里程碑，特别是 1979 年建立外交关系。此外，它将分析两国在不同时期的主要经济、政治和安全动态，提供更广泛地了解他们之间相互作用的演变性质。 第二部分将深入探讨中美关系的经济层面。它将探讨两国之间的贸易和投资随着时间的推移如何演变，并找出经济关系中出现的主要问题和争议。此外，它将分析经济相互依存对整体双边关系的影响，强调这种相互依存带来的复杂性和挑战。第三部分将探讨中美之间的政治动态和外交互动。它将追踪多年来两国政治关系的变化，确定政治领域的合作和分歧领域。此外，它将探讨美中关系如何影响地区和全球政治，突出这两个大国在塑造国际秩序中的作用。 第四部分将重点讨论当前中美两国的焦点问题，特别是台海和南海问题。它将分析这些焦点问题对区域和全球安全的影响，揭示它们带来的潜在风险和挑战。 最后，研究论文将讨论中美关系的未来前景和挑战。它将确定当前关系中的挑战和紧张领域，并为两国关系未来如何发展提供见解。此外，它将探讨这种不断发展的关系对全球政治、经济和安全的潜在影响。
1979 年至今中美关系概述
什么是这一时期中美关系演变有哪些重大事件和里程碑？
多年来中美关系演变有重大里程碑和关键事件。中美双边关系经历了隔阂、结盟、对抗、僵持、缓和、合作、摩擦等不同阶段。每个新时代都会给他们的关系故事带来变化，充满戏剧性的曲折。中美关系对世界的影响随着时间的推移而缓慢增长，两国交往的历史经验也影响着全球舞台。中美关系的历史给两国提供了宝贵的经验教训，回顾过去的经验可以帮助两国避免潜在的灾难性对抗，并通过理性、耐心、智慧和创造力重塑两国关系。社会制度、价值观、地缘、国际地位等方面的差异对两国双边关系发挥了影响作用[1]。美国的对华战略发生了巨大变化，而中国的对美战略则保持相对稳定。 20世纪90年代初至2010年中期，中美关系以合作为特征，但随后转向竞争。中美之间的竞争源于两国根本不同的理念，中国的社会主义与美国的资本社会自由主义相互冲突[2]。中美关系的未来不仅影响两国发展，也影响世界的未来 作为一个整体。因此，了解中美关系演变中的关键事件和里程碑对于理解中美关系的复杂性及其全球意义至关重要。
1979年建交如何塑造了两国关系的轨迹
1979年中美建交对两国关系轨迹产生了深远影响。在实现正常化之前，两国有着充满冲突和紧张局势的复杂历史。然而，建交为中美接触与合作开辟了新的途径。它为加强贸易和经济联系以及文化交流和人员往来铺平了道路。这种向外交关系的转变也对军事关系产生了影响，随着时间的推移，两国之间的军事关系不断加深[3]。此外，关系正常化使中美双边关系更加稳定，中国的改革开放时期也有助于两国关系更加积极和建设性。然而，值得注意的是，这种关系的发展轨迹并非没有挑战。政治冲突有时会影响双边贸易和关系的其他方面，凸显中美关系的复杂性以及持续对话与合作来解决这些问题的必要性[4]。总体而言，1979 年建交为中美之间的多方面关系奠定了基础，塑造了两国在各个领域的互动，并影响了两国多年来的总体轨迹。
主要的经济、政治和安全动态是什么两国不同时期的关系？
1979年至2009年，这30年中美关系高度稳定，是双边关系最稳定的阶段。这种稳定可以归功于中国的改革开放进程，这对两国之间的经济、政治和安全动态产生了积极影响。本研究提出的综合模型为处理当前中美之间的事态提供了宝贵的见解，凸显了了解政治冲突对双边贸易影响的重要性。值得注意的是，这一时期两国之间存在政治冲突的迹象，一些研究表明这种冲突在贸易关系方面对中国有利[4]。然而，重要的是要考虑中美关系的复杂性，避免过度简单化所涉及的动态。需要进一步的研究来准确评估和理解中美之间在不同时期的经济、政治和安全动态的复杂性。
中美经济互动
中美之间的贸易和投资随着时间的推移如何演变？
随着时间的推移，美国和中国之间的贸易和投资关系发生了重大变化并以多种方式演变。 20世纪90年代，全球化和多边主义的全球趋势使中美两国在贸易和投资方面更加紧密地联系在一起，导致两国之间的合作不断增加。然而，2010年代中期以来，中美关系转向竞争，两国都在追求各自的经济利益，陷入贸易争端。思想上的差异，特别是中国的社会主义和美国的资本自由主义，导致了两国之间的竞争。这种动态变化也反映在中美之间的贸易不平衡中，由于贸易不平衡扩大，两国政治关系日益紧张。中美关系的恶化也对美国有关中国企业进入美国市场的政策产生了影响。此外，美国对华一系列政策，包括2018年实施的贸易制裁，使两国关系进一步紧张，达到建交以来的最[5]。中美贸易投资关系的这些变化受到认知差异、政治关系变化、贸易保护主义等多种因素的影响。因此，中美贸易和投资关系呈现出积极和消极影响并存的特点，并随着政治动态和经济状况的变化而出现波动。 政策制定者必须考虑这些因素，并通过鼓励中国企业到美国投资，而不是仅仅依靠出口来增强国际竞争力。
经济关系中的主要问题和争议是什么？
中美之间的经济关系是一个备受关注和争论的话题。现有文献讨论的主要问题之一是政治关系对贸易的影响以及贸易对政治关系依赖的抵消。结合特定事件及其发生的特定时代来分析中美双边政治关系和贸易之间的动态互动非常重要。鉴于两国之间持续的贸易战，也应该重新审视经济相互依存是否带来和平的问题。根据经典理论，如果经济主体对国家间政治关系有完整的信息，政治冲突可能不会对双边贸易产生重大影响。然而，此前的研究表明，中国从美国的进口会导致政治冲突，而中国的出口则促进和平，这表明这是一种静态的相关关系。对未来贸易环境的预期在决定政治关系的质量和进出口数量方面发挥着重要作用。贸易政策的变化不会立即影响双边贸易和政治关系，而是经历一个预期形成、等待和调整的过程。这些影响的机制可能源于贸易政策的不确定性对未来贸易环境的预期。总体而言，理解政治关系与贸易之间复杂且动态的关系对于分析中美经济关系中的主要问题和争议至关重要。
经济相互依存如何影响整体双边关系？
经济相互依存对整体双边关系的影响是一个备受关注和争论的话题。经济相互依存可以塑造一个国家的防御立场和信念，因为它是在防御性现实主义框架内发展的。这表明两国之间的经济相互依存程度可能会影响它们的安全观以及合作或参与冲突的意愿。一种更客观的方法来研究经济相互依赖的影响，利用贸易趋势、贸易脆弱性和自给自足的可行性来对整体双边关系做出可检验的预测。与此同时，研究比较美国和中国、美国和日本之间的双边贸易冲突，表明经济相互依存的增加实际上会导致国家之间的冲突增加，这与经济相互依存促进和平关系的观念相矛盾。对未来贸易环境的负面预期可能会导致冲突的增加。然而，有证据表明，经济相互依存可以促进国家之间的和平关系。优惠贸易协定（PTA）成员卷入军事冲突的可能性较小，这表明经济上的相互依存可以促进和平关系[5]。总体而言，经济相互依存对整体双边关系的影响是复杂和多方面的，其结果取决于认知、期望和贸易关系性质等因素。
政治动态和外交互动
中美政治如何发展这些年来中美关系发生了哪些变化？
这些年来，中美政治关系发生了重大变化。外交在塑造这些关系中发挥着至关重要的作用，因为它涉及国家之间政治互动的动态。外交的相互关系以及政治去领土化/再领土化的动态在中美相互以及与周边国际社会的互动中发挥了关键作用[6]。这些互动不仅限于官方外交渠道，还延伸到各种外交轨道，例如政府官员进行的第一轨道谈判[7]。了解外交互动的动态对于理解中美关系的变化性质至关重要。对这些动态的研究提供了对数字外交固有的潜在权力动态以及它们如何改变外交互动的传统模式的见解[8]。此外，外交动态与科学和政治领域之间的相互作用形成了影响中美整体关系的纽带[9]。对于国际机构来说，更好地了解一个国家内水相互作用所涉及的政治动态非常重要，因为这些知识可以为他们的决策过程提供信息并有助于更有效的国际合作[10]。总体而言，全面了解中美之间的政治动态和外交互动对于分析和预测两国关系的轨迹至关重要。
中美关系如何影响地区和全球政治？
中美关系的动态对地区和全球政治具有重大影响。这两个大国之间的外交互动塑造了政治格局并产生深远的影响。外交作为国家间互动的手段，在塑造国际关系中发挥着至关重要的作用。美国和中国之间的互动有能力改变传统的外交模式，并为传统的外交交流形式带来新的动力。两国之间的这些互动可以被视为一种纽带，政治和外交的动态相互交叉并相互影响。这些互动中固有的权力动态可能对区域和全球舞台产生深远影响。了解美国和中国之间外交互动的细微差别对于理解更广泛的国际政治动态至关重要[11]。此外，研究一个国家内部相互作用的政治动态可以为了解国际关系的复杂动态提供有价值的见解。因此，有必要收集有关这些互动的政治动态的定性和定量数据，以全面了解其对区域和全球政治的影响。总体而言，中美关系错综复杂，影响深远，研究中美互动的动态对于理解更广泛的政治格局至关重要。
中美当前焦点问题
台海问题和南海问题
台海和南海问题错综复杂，对地区稳定和全球政治影响深远。最近的事态发展表明，中国对自身安全的关注以及与美国日益激烈的竞争有可能加剧该地区的紧张局势[12]。大多数美国成年人对中国持有负面看法，其中很大一部分人表达了非常不利的看法，这进一步加剧了这种情况[13]。美国长期以来在人权和恶劣的工作条件等各种问题上批评中国[14]。另一方面，中国对美国专注于与北京竞争和对抗而不是进行建设性对话感到沮丧[15]。在拜登政府领导下，制定了一个时间表来跟踪美中关系的关键发展，包括贸易和商业接触，强调这些问题在全球舞台上的持续重要性[16]。正如美国国务卿安东尼·布林肯访华所强调的那样，两国在外交交往中解决这些关切并优先考虑人权至关重要[17]。了解国际社会的现状和全球经济的上升趋势对于解决这些复杂问题也至关重要[18]。台湾问题和南海问题的影响超出了经济福祉，对中国来说涉及到国家的主权问题；然而美国一直认为这涉及对民主价值观和地区稳定以及航行自由构成了严重威胁。这使得所有利益攸关方必须努力解决的课题[19]。
拜登总统在与中国国家主席习近平在首次线上会晤中预示了中美之间的“激烈竞争”。自那以后，两国的竞争从南太平洋到非洲各地升温，从维护供应链韧性到坚守军民科技优势问题上都是如此。因此，许多专家称这种紧张关系为“结构性”问题，即新兴大国利益的实现必然会导致守成大国付出代价。然而，没有任何地方比台湾海峡更能显示出加剧的紧张和潜在的危险。台湾问题一直是个辣手问题，中美对这一问题都直言不讳，中方认为台湾是中国的内政问题，如何解决，包含武力解决都是中国自己的事；美方认为任何一方不能单方面改变现状，如果中方强行武力解决，美军会介入，拜登总统三次面对记者直言不讳地就如果大陆武力解决台湾问题的提问，都表明了这种立场。拜登政府同时谈到了设立“护栏”。台湾海峡隐含的“护栏”就是维持现状，真正有效的“护栏”是五十年前建立既灵活又模糊的“一个中国”的框架，因为这种灵活性和模糊性意味着向所有方面提供保证。对于中国来说，保证意味着和平统一仍有可能。对于台湾来说，保证意味着任何未来解决方案都不会违反其公民的自由意志。对于美国及其盟友来说，保证意味着实质性的与台湾的联系和合作可以维持和加深，而不会引发与中国的对抗。通过重申这些保证，历史虽有证明，华盛顿和北京可以管理他们在台湾问题上的分歧，而中美关系也可以继续向前发展。不过，这些保证对现有执政的首脑人物是否仍起作用，答案是不确定的，首选是首脑人物的特质不一样，其次这种不确定是多种历史、经济、政治、军事综合结果。
南海问题的当前影响最大的是航行自由问题，其次是海洋渔业和石油资源开发问题，这一问题已成为中美关系中的一个重要争论点。尽管这些经历了相当多的起伏，但当前对这一特定问题的关注凸显了海事安全和国际法的重要性。一些亲美的政界和学界以及涉海的一些国家认为中国在南海的强硬行动，包括建造人工岛和建立军事设施，引起了其他国家对航行自由和维护基于规则的国际秩序的担忧，菲律宾与中国的争端，国际法院判决中国败诉。美国作为该地区的关键参与者，一直直言不讳地反对中国的行动，并倡导所有国家在国际水域自由航行的权利。不过亲中的政界和学界以及中国本身认为，这些海域是在中国领海中国有权管辖，就中菲领海争端国际法院判决是不合法的，等同一张废纸，同时对航行问题中国也灵活地表示，不影响国际航行自由。因此这一问题已成为两国讨论的焦点，盖过了贸易和环境合作等其他重要的地区问题。解决这一具体问题的需要反映了日益紧张的局势以及双方需要找到一个互惠互利的解决方案，以维护多方商定的国际准则并维护该地区的稳定。
这一焦点问题对区域和全球安全有何影响？
这一焦点问题对地区和全球安全的影响意义重大，特别是在中国日益关注自身安全以及与美国竞争加剧的背景下。中国的行动和政策导致绝大多数美国成年人对中国持负面看法，其中很大一部分人对中国持非常不利的看法[12][13]。美国一直在人权问题上批评中国，并且一直抱怨中国恶劣的工作条件[14]。这进一步加剧了两国之间的紧张关系，中国对美国专注于竞争和对抗北京表示失望[15]。中美之间不断变化的动态对全球经济和国际关系产生深远影响。政策制定者必须优先考虑人权问题并开展有意义的对话来应对这种竞争带来的挑战，以确保区域和全球安全[17][18]。这两个大国之间持续的紧张关系有可能对美国和整个国际社会的经济福祉和民主价值观产生重大影响[19]。因此，有必要密切监测和应对这些影响，以维护地区稳定和全球安全。
未来展望和挑战
当前中美关系面临哪些挑战和紧张领域？
中美关系现状存在若干挑战和紧张领域。主要挑战之一在于经济领域，特别是在贸易和技术方面。两国都对彼此的商品征收关税，导致贸易战扰乱了全球市场。此外，人们还担心知识产权盗窃和强制技术转让，这导致两国关系紧张。另一个紧张的领域是在政治领域，人权和民主等问题成为争论的根源。美国批评中国的人权记录，特别是其对待少数民族和镇压异见的做法。此外，在南海领土主张上也存在分歧，美国指责中国在该地区实施军事化。此外，网络安全领域也存在挑战，两国都互相指责对方从事网络间谍和网络攻击。这些紧张局势导致对华为等在美国经营的中国公司进行更严格的审查和限制。总体而言，当前中美关系面临的挑战和紧张领域是多方面的，对两国和国际社会都有广泛影响。
未来两国关系将如何发展？
两国关系的未来中美之间的关系是一个备受关注和猜测的话题。这两个全球大国之间不断变化的动态无疑将塑造未来几年的地缘政治格局。虽然挑战和障碍不可避免，但也存在合作与协作的机会。一个关键的挑战是在各自利益之间找到平衡，避免零和游戏。两国需要以理性、耐心、智慧和创造力来处理两国关系，以互利共赢的方式重塑两国关系[20]。与任何复杂的关系一样，都会存在需要考虑的技术挑战和设计标准，但也存在增长和进步的前景和机会[21]。重要的是要解决可能影响这种关系发展的内部和外部因素，例如计算复杂性和执行问题，同时还要考虑未来合作的新材料和技术[22][23]。此外，为了促进可持续发展并找到创新解决方案，识别并克服废水处理和聚合物串联太阳能电池等特定领域的挑战至关重要[24][25][26]。开发高效的传感、通信和控制系统对于两国未来的合作也至关重要[27]。总体而言，中美关系的未来挑战与机遇并存，需要双方共同努力和战略规划来驾驭这一复杂格局。
这对全球政治、经济和安全有哪些潜在影响？
展望未来，对全球政治、经济和安全的潜在影响至关重要。这些领域的关键挑战之一是粮食安全，因为世界目前在这方面面临着前所未有的挑战。此外，还有一些社会挑战需要解决，这些挑战正在影响全球政治和经济。这些挑战需要各个部门的个人共同努力，为未来提供见解和解决方案。在经济学方面，存在需要克服的计算复杂性和执行问题，以及其他带来挑战的内部和外部因素。此外，聚合物串联太阳能电池领域面临着许多限制因素，需要解决这些因素才能取得未来的进展。高科技产业的发展也提出了需要通过创新解决方案和未来方向来克服的挑战。在安全领域，废水处理和无人机网络等领域面临着挑战，这些领域需要高效的传感、通信和控制系统，并解决剩余的挑战。总体而言，应对这些挑战并找到有效的解决方案将对全球政治、经济和安全的未来产生重大影响。
从 1979 年至今，中美关系的演变是一个复杂且多方面的过程，受到各种经济因素的影响。这一全面分析强调了塑造两国关系的重要里程碑和关键事件。 1979年建交标志着一个转折点，开辟了接触与合作的新途径。但两国关系经历了从疏远到结盟、从对抗到合作、从摩擦到缓和的不同阶段。社会制度、价值观、地域、国际地位的差异对这种关系产生了影响。20世纪90年代初至2010年中期是合作关系，但近年来两国关系转向竞争。这种竞争植根于根本不同的理念，中国的社会主义与美国的资本自由主义发生冲突。中美关系的历史经验不仅对两国发展产生影响，也对世界产生影响。每个时代，他们的关系都发生了变化，出现了戏剧性的波折。中美关系的未来对全球政治、经济和安全具有重大影响。经济相互依存对双边关系的影响是一个备受关注和争论的领域。受政治关系、贸易保护主义、认知差异等因素影响，两国贸易投资关系发生重大变化。尽管经济上的相互依存有可能促进和平关系，但中美之间持续的贸易战对这一概念提出了挑战。围绕台湾问题和南海的问题使地区稳定和全球政治进一步复杂化。因此，考虑到具体事件及其发生的时代，分析政治关系与贸易之间的动态相互作用至关重要。 1979年建交也对中美军事关系产生了影响，关系随着时间的推移不断深化。 1979年至2009年两国关系的稳定得益于中国的改革开放进程。
展望未来，必须应对挑战并找到有效的解决方案，这将对全球政治、经济和安全的未来产生重大影响。这需要持续的对话、合作以及开发高效的传感、通信和控制系统。总体而言，这一综合分析凸显了中美关系的复杂性。
作者：哈佛学者 李锦维博士 20230805
注释参考来源见下面英文翻译之最后：
On the Evolution of Sino-US Relations
LI JIN WEI
Since establishing diplomatic relations in 1979, Sino-US relations have undergone major changes. Over the past forty-four years, the two countries have experienced a complex interplay of economic, political, and security dynamics that have shaped their bilateral interactions. This research paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the evolution of U.S.-China relations from 1979 to the present, focusing on key events, milestones, and dynamics that shaped the relationship between these two global powers. The first part of this article will provide an overview of Sino-US relations in a given period. It will examine major events and milestones that shaped the relationship trajectory between the two countries, notably the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1979. In addition, it will analyze key economic, political, and security dynamics between the two countries over time, providing a broader understanding of the evolving nature of their interactions. The second part will delve into the economic dimension of US-China relations. It will examine how trade and investment between the two countries have evolved over time and identify key issues and controversies in the economic relationship. In addition, it will analyze the impact of economic interdependence on the overall bilateral relationship, emphasizing the complexities and challenges posed by this interdependence. The third section will explore the political dynamics and diplomatic interactions between China and the United States. It will track changes in the political relationship between the two countries over the years, identifying areas of cooperation and disagreement in the political arena. In addition, it will explore how U.S.-China relations affect regional and global politics, highlighting the role of these two great powers in shaping the international order. The fourth part will focus on the current focus issues of China and the United States, especially the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea issues. It will analyze the impact of these focal issues on regional and global security, revealing the potential risks and challenges they pose. Finally, the research paper will discuss prospects and challenges for U.S.-China relations. It will identify challenges and areas of tension in the current relationship and provide insights into how the relationship between the two countries may develop. In addition, it will explore the potential implications of this evolving relationship for global politics, economics, and security.
An overview of Sino-US relations from 1979 to the present
What are the major events and milestones in the evolution of Sino-US relations during this period?
Over the years, there have been major milestones and key events in the evolution of Sino-US relations. The bilateral relations between China and the United States have gone through different stages, such as estrangement, alliance, confrontation, stalemate, détente, cooperation, and friction. Each new era brings changes to their relationship story, full of dramatic twists and turns. The influence of Sino-US relations on the world has slowly grown over time, and the historical experience of exchanges between the two countries has also influenced the global stage. The history of Sino-US relations provides valuable lessons for both countries and reviewing experience can help the two countries avoid potentially disastrous confrontations and reshape the relationship between the two countries through reason, patience, wisdom, and creativity. Differences in social systems, values, geography, and international status have influenced the bilateral relations between the two countries [1]. The U.S. strategy toward China has undergone tremendous changes, while China's strategy toward the U.S. has remained relatively stable. From the early 1990s to the mid-2010s, U.S.-China relations were characterized by cooperation but then turned to competition. The competition between China and the United States stems from fundamentally different philosophies of the two countries, with Chinese socialism in conflict with American capitalist social liberalism[2]. The future of Sino-US relations affects not only the development of the two countries but also the future of the world as a whole. Therefore, understanding the key events and milestones in the evolution of Sino-US relations is crucial to understanding the complexity of Sino-US relations and their global significance.
How the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1979 shaped the trajectory of the relationship between the two countries
The establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States in 1979 profoundly impacted the trajectory of the relationship between the two countries. Before normalization, the two countries had a complicated history of conflict and tension. However, establishing diplomatic relations opened up new avenues for Sino-US contact and cooperation. It paves the way for enhanced trade, economic ties, and cultural and people-to-people exchanges. This shift to diplomatic relations also impacted military relations, which deepened over time between the two countries[3]. In addition, the normalization of relations has made the bilateral relations between China and the United States more stable, and the period of reform and opening up in China has also contributed to a more positive and constructive relationship between the two countries. It's worth noting, however, that the trajectory of this relationship has been challenging. Political conflicts can sometimes affect bilateral trade and other aspects of the relationship, highlighting the complexity of US-China relations and the need for continued dialogue and cooperation to resolve these issues[4]. The establishment of diplomatic relations in 1979 laid the foundation for a multifaceted relationship between the United States and China, shaping the two countries' interactions in various fields and influencing their general trajectory over the years.
What are the major economic, political, and security developments in the relationship between the two countries over time?
From 1979 to 2009, Sino-US relations were highly stable for these 30 years, the most stable stage of bilateral relations. This stability can be attributed to China's reform and opening process, which has positively impacted the economic, political, and security dynamics between the two countries. The comprehensive model proposed in this study provides valuable insights into the current state of affairs between the United States and China, highlighting the importance of understanding the impact of political conflict on bilateral trade. It is worth noting that there were signs of political conflict between the two countries during this period, which some studies have shown favored China in terms of trade relations[4]. However, it is important to consider the complexities of the U.S.-China relationship and avoid oversimplifying the dynamics involved. Further research is needed to accurately assess and understand the complexities of economic, political, and security dynamics between the United States and China over time.
Sino-US Economic Interaction
How has trade and investment between the U.S. and China evolved?
Over time, the trade and investment relationship between the United States and China has changed significantly and evolved in several ways. In the 1990s, the global trend of globalization and multilateralism brought China and the United States closer regarding trade and investment, leading to increasing cooperation between the two countries. However, since the mid-2010s, Sino-US relations have turned to competition, with both countries pursuing their economic interests and getting caught up in trade disputes. Differences in thought, especially socialism in China and capital liberalism in the United States, have led to competition between the two countries. This dynamic is also reflected in the trade imbalance between the U.S. and China, which has seen growing political tensions as the trade imbalance widens. The deterioration of Sino-US relations has also impacted US policies regarding Chinese companies entering the US market. In addition, a series of US policies towards China, including the trade sanctions imposed in 2018, has further strained the relationship between the two countries, reaching the highest level since establishing diplomatic relations[5]. These changes in Sino-US trade and investment relations are affected by various factors such as cognitive differences, changes in political relations, and trade protectionism. Therefore, Sino-US trade and investment relations present positive and negative effects and fluctuate with political and economic changes. Policymakers must consider these factors and enhance international competitiveness by encouraging Chinese companies to invest in the United States rather than rely solely on exports.
What are the main issues and controversies in the economic relationship?
The economic relationship between the United States and China is much concern and debate. One of the main issues discussed in the existing literature is the impact of political ties on trade and the offsetting trade dependence on political ties. It is important to analyze the dynamic interaction between Sino-U.S. bilateral political relations and trade in the context of specific events and the specific era in which they occurred. Given the ongoing trade war between the two countries, whether economic interdependence brings peace should also be re-examined. According to classical theory, if economic agents have complete information on political relations between countries, political conflicts may not significantly impact bilateral trade. However, previous research has shown that Chinese imports from the United States lead to political conflict, while Chinese exports promote peace, suggesting a static correlation. Expectations of the future trading environment play an important role in determining the quality of political relationships and the volume of imports and exports. Changes in trade policy will not immediately affect bilateral trade and political relations but will go through a process of expectation formation, waiting, and adjustment. The mechanism of these effects may stem from trade policy uncertainty in anticipating the future trade environment. Understanding the complex and dynamic relationship between political relations and trade is critical to analyzing major issues and controversies in U.S.-China economic relations.
How does economic interdependence affect the overall bilateral relationship?
The impact of economic interdependence on the overall bilateral relationship is a topic of intense interest and debate. Economic interdependence can shape a nation's defensive stance and beliefs as it develops within a defensive realism framework. This suggests that the degree of economic interdependence between the two countries may affect their security perceptions and willingness to cooperate or engage in conflict. A more objective approach to studying the effects of economic interdependence, using trade trends, trade vulnerabilities, and the viability of autarky to make testable predictions about overall bilateral relations. Meanwhile, research comparing bilateral trade conflicts between the U.S. and China and the U.S. and Japan suggests that increased economic interdependence can lead to increased conflict between countries, contradicting the notion that economic interdependence promotes peaceful relations. Negative expectations about the future trading environment could lead to increased conflict. However, there is evidence that economic interdependence can foster peaceful relations between nations. Members of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are less likely to be involved in military conflicts, suggesting that economic interdependence can promote peaceful relations [5]. Overall, the impact of economic interdependence on the overall bilateral relationship is complex and multifaceted, with outcomes depending on factors such as perceptions, expectations, and the nature of the trade relationship.
Political Dynamics and Diplomatic Interactions
How has Sino-US politics developed? What changes have taken place in Sino-US relations over the years?
Over the years, Sino-US political relations have undergone major changes. Diplomacy plays a crucial role in shaping these relationships regarding political interactions between states. Diplomatic interrelationships and the dynamics of political deterritorialization/reterritorialization have played a key role in how China and the United States interact with each other and with the surrounding international community[6]. These interactions are not limited to official diplomatic channels but also extend to various diplomatic tracks, such as track one negotiations conducted by government officials [7]. Understanding the dynamics of diplomatic interactions is critical to understanding the changing nature of U.S.-China relations. The study of these dynamics provides insights into the underlying power dynamics inherent in digital diplomacy and how they alter traditional patterns of diplomatic interaction [8]. Furthermore, the interplay between the diplomatic dynamics and the scientific and political spheres forms a bond that affects the overall relationship between China and the United States [9]. International agencies need to better understand the political dynamics involved in water interactions within a country, as this knowledge can inform their decision-making processes and facilitate more effective international cooperation [10]. A comprehensive understanding of the political dynamics and diplomatic interactions between the United States and China is critical to analyzing and predicting the relationship trajectory between the two countries.
How do US-China relations affect regional and global politics?
The dynamics of U.S.-China relations have major implications for regional and global politics. The diplomatic interactions between these two great powers have shaped the political landscape and had far-reaching consequences. Diplomacy, as a means of interaction between states, plays a vital role in shaping international relations. Interactions between the United States and China can transform traditional diplomatic models and bring new dynamics to traditional forms of diplomatic exchange. These interactions between the two countries can be seen as a bond where political and diplomatic dynamics intersect and feed each other. The power dynamics inherent in these interactions can have profound consequences on the regional and global stage. Understanding the nuances of diplomatic interactions between the United States and China is critical to understanding broader international political dynamics [11]. Furthermore, studying the political dynamics of interactions within a country can provide valuable insights into the complex dynamics of international relations. Therefore, there is a need to collect qualitative and quantitative data on the political dynamics of these interactions to gain a comprehensive understanding of their implications for regional and global politics. Overall, Sino-U.S. relations are complex and far-reaching, and studying the dynamics of Sino-U.S. interactions is critical to understanding the broader political landscape.
The current focus of China and the United States
Taiwan Strait Issue and South China Sea Issue
The Taiwan Strait and South China Sea issues are complex and impact regional stability and global politics. Recent developments suggest that China's concerns about its security and growing competition with the United States have the potential to heighten tensions in the region[12]. This situation is further exacerbated by the majority of American adults holding a negative view of China, with a large proportion expressing a very unfavorable view [13]. The United States has long criticized China on various issues, from human rights to poor working conditions[14]. On the other hand, China is frustrated with the US focus on competition and confrontation with Beijing instead of constructive dialogue[15]. Under the Biden administration, a timeline was developed to track key developments in U.S.-China relations, including trade and commercial engagement, emphasizing the continued importance of these issues on the global stage[16]. As highlighted by U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s visit to China, the two countries must address these concerns and prioritize human rights in their diplomatic engagement[17]. Understanding the current state of the international community and the upward trend of the global economy is also crucial to addressing these complex issues [18]. The impact of the Taiwan and South China Sea issues goes beyond economic well-being. For China, it involves national sovereignty issues; however, the United States has always believed that this involves a serious threat to democratic values and regional stability, and freedom of navigation. This makes it a subject that all stakeholders must grapple with [19].
President Joe Biden heralded "fierce competition" between the U.S. and China in his first virtual meeting with President Xi Jinping. Since then, the rivalry between the two countries has heated up from the South Pacific to Africa on issues ranging from maintaining supply chain resilience to defending military and civilian technological advantages. Therefore, many experts call this tension a "structural" problem; that is, realizing the interests of emerging powers will inevitably lead to the costs of established powers. Nowhere, however, has heightened tension and potential danger been demonstrated more than in the Taiwan Strait. The Taiwan issue has always been a thorny issue. Both China and the United States are outspoken on this issue. China believes that Taiwan is China’s internal affairs. How to solve it, including using force, is China’s business. If China forces a solution by force, the U.S. military will intervene. President Biden expressed this position three times when he asked reporters bluntly if the mainland should use force to solve the Taiwan issue. The Biden administration has also talked about setting up "guardrails." The implicit "guardrail" of the Taiwan Strait is to maintain the status quo. The real effective "guardrail" is the flexible and vague "one China" framework established 50 years ago because this flexibility and ambiguity mean providing all parties with ensure. For China, the assurance means that peaceful reunification is still possible. For Taiwan, the guarantee means that any future settlement will not violate the free will of its citizens. Assurances for the United States and its allies mean that substantive ties and cooperation with Taiwan can be maintained and deepened without provoking confrontation with China. By reaffirming these assurances, history has proven that Washington and Beijing can manage their differences over Taiwan and that U.S.-China relations can advance. However, the answer to whether these guarantees still work for the current ruling leaders is uncertain. The first is that the characteristics of the leaders are different, and the second is that this uncertainty results from various historical, economic, political, and military factors.
The South China Sea issue currently has the greatest impact on the issue of freedom of navigation, followed by the issue of marine fisheries and oil resource development. This issue has become an important point of contention in Sino-US relations. While these have seen their fair share of ups and downs, the current focus on this particular issue highlights the importance of maritime security and international law. Some pro-American political and academic circles, as well as some countries involved in the sea, believe that China’s tough actions in the South China Sea, including the construction of artificial islands and the establishment of military facilities, have aroused other countries’ concerns about the freedom of navigation and the maintenance of a rules-based international order. The Philippines and China’s in dispute, the International Court of Justice ruled against China. The United States, a key player in the region, has been an outspoken opponent of China's actions and has advocated for the right of all nations to navigate freely in international waters. However, pro-China political circles and academic circles, as well as China itself, believe that these waters are within China’s territorial waters and China has jurisdiction over them. The International Court of Justice’s decision on the China-Philippines territorial water dispute is illegal and is equivalent to a piece of waste paper. At the same time, China is also flexible on navigation issues. They are told that it will not affect the freedom of international navigation. As a result, the issue has become the focus of discussions between the two countries, overshadowing other important regional issues such as trade and environmental cooperation. The need to address this issue reflects rising tensions and the need for both parties to find a mutually beneficial solution that upholds multilaterally agreed international norms and preserves regional stability.
What are the implications of this focus for regional and global security?
The implications of this focus on regional and global security are significant, especially in the context of China's growing concern for its security and heightened competition with the United States. China's actions and policies have led to a negative view of China by the vast majority of American adults, and a large proportion of them have a very unfavorable view of China[12][13]. The United States has been criticizing China on human rights issues and complaining about poor working conditions in China[14]. This further exacerbated tensions between the two countries, with China expressing frustration with the US focus on competition and confronting Beijing[15]. The changing dynamics between the United States and China have profound implications for the global economy and international relations. Policymakers must prioritize human rights issues and engage in meaningful dialogue to address the challenges posed by this competition to ensure regional and global security [17][18]. Ongoing tensions between these two great powers can significantly impact the economic well-being and democratic values of the United States and the international community at large [19]. Therefore, it is necessary to closely monitor and respond to these impacts to maintain regional stability and global security.
Future Prospects and Challenges
What are the current challenges and areas of tension in China-US relations?
There are several challenges and areas of tension in the current state of US-China relations. One of the main challenges lies in the economic field, especially in trade and technology. Both countries have imposed tariffs on each other's goods, leading to a trade war that has roiled global markets. There are also concerns about intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers, which have strained relations between the two countries. Another area of tension is in the political sphere, where issues such as human rights and democracy become a source of contention. The United States has criticized China's human rights record, particularly its treatment of ethnic minorities and its repression of dissent. There are also differences over territorial claims in the South China Sea, with the US accusing China of militarizing the region. In addition, there are challenges in cyber security, and both countries have accused each other of engaging in cyber espionage and cyber attacks. These tensions have led to greater scrutiny and restrictions on Chinese companies such as Huawei operating in the United States. Generally speaking, the current challenges and areas of tension in Sino-US relations are multifaceted and have an extensive impact on both countries and the international community.
How will the relationship between the two countries develop in the future?
The future of relations between the two countries The relationship between the United States and China is a subject of much attention and speculation. The changing dynamic between these two global powers will undoubtedly shape the geopolitical landscape for years. While challenges and obstacles are inevitable, there are also opportunities for cooperation and collaboration. A key challenge is to find a balance between respective interests and avoid zero-sum games. The two countries need to handle the relationship between the two countries with rationality, patience, wisdom, and creativity and reshape the relationship between the two countries in a mutually beneficial and win-win manner[20]. As with any complex relationship, there will be technical challenges and design criteria to consider, but there are also prospects and opportunities for growth and advancement [21]. It is important to address internal and external factors that may affect the development of this relationship, such as computational complexity and implementation issues, while also considering new materials and techniques for future collaborations [22][23]. Furthermore, identifying and overcoming domain-specific challenges such as wastewater treatment and polymer tandem solar cells is crucial to promote sustainable development and find innovative solutions [24][25][26]. Developing efficient sensing, communication, and control systems is also crucial for future cooperation between the two countries [27]. In general, the future challenges and opportunities of Sino-US relations coexist, and both parties need joint efforts and strategic planning to manage this complex situation.
What are the potential implications for global politics, economics, and security?
The potential implications for global politics, economics, and security are critical. One of the key challenges in these areas is food security, as the world is facing unprecedented challenges. In addition, there are societal challenges to be addressed that are affecting global politics and economics. These challenges require individuals across sectors to collaborate to provide insights and solutions for the future. On the economic side, there are computational complexities and implementation issues to overcome, as well as other internal and external factors that pose challenges. Furthermore, polymer tandem solar cells face many constraints that must be addressed for future progress. The development of the high-tech industry also presents challenges that need to be overcome through innovative solutions and future directions. In security, there are challenges in areas such as wastewater treatment and drone networking that require efficient sensing, communication, and control systems and address the remaining challenges. Addressing these challenges and finding effective solutions will have major implications for the future of global politics, economics, and security.
From 1979 to the present, the evolution of Sino-US relations has been complex and multifaceted, influenced by various economic factors. This comprehensive analysis highlights important milestones and key events that shaped the relationship between the two countries. Establishing diplomatic relations in 1979 marked a turning point and opened up new avenues of engagement and cooperation. However, the relationship between the two countries has gone through different stages, from alienation to alliance, confrontation to cooperation, and friction to relaxation. Differences in social systems, values, regions, and international status have affected this relationship. From the early 1990s to the mid-2010s, it was a cooperative relationship, but in recent years the relationship between the two countries has turned to competition. This competition is rooted in fundamentally different ideas, with Chinese socialism conflicting with American capitalist liberalism. The historical experience of Sino-US relations not only has an impact on the development of the two countries but also has an impact on the world. With each era, their relationship changes and takes dramatic twists and turns. The future of U.S.-China relations has major implications for global politics, economics, and security. The impact of economic interdependence on bilateral relations is an area of intense concern and debate. Affected by factors such as political relations, trade protectionism, and cognitive differences, major changes have taken place in the trade and investment relations between the two countries. While economic interdependence has the potential to foster peaceful relations, the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China challenges that notion. Issues surrounding Taiwan and the South China Sea further complicate regional stability and global politics. It is, therefore, crucial to analyze the dynamic interplay between political relations and trade, taking into account specific events and the times in which they occurred. Establishing diplomatic relations in 1979 also impacted Sino-US military relations, which have deepened over time. The relationship stability between the two countries from 1979 to 2009 benefited from China's reform and opening-up process.
Challenges must be addressed and effective solutions found, which will majorly impact the future of global politics, economics, and security. This requires ongoing dialogue, collaboration, and the development of efficient sensing, communication, and control systems. Overall, this comprehensive analysis highlights the complexity of Sino-US relations.
Dr. LI JIN WEI
20230805
The author is an international relations expert and a Harvard scholar
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1. 张斌，从历史的角度认识中美关系的变化。 检索自 link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s42533-020-00048-6
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14. 有争议的中美贸易关系。 检索自 www.cfr.org
15. 中美关系为何陷入僵局。 检索自 carnegieendowment.org
16. 拜登时代的中美关系：时间表。 检索自 www.china-briefing.com
17. 中方：美高层访问应聚焦人权。 检索自 www.hrw.org
18. 中美聚焦 (@ChinaUSFocus ) /Twitter 。检索自 twitter.com/chinausfocus?lang = en
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23. Lee, J., Chen, C., Lee, P., Lin, H., Leung, M.蓝色有机发光二极管：现状、挑战和未来展望。检索自pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2021/xx/c9tc00204a
24. Sista , S., Hong, Z., Chen, L., Yang, Y.串联聚合物光伏电池——现状、挑战和未来展望。pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlehtml/2011/ee/c0ee00754d
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26. Saravanan , A.、 Deivayanai , V.、Kumar, P.废水处理中高级氧化工艺的详细回顾：机制、挑战和未来展望。 检索自 www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004565352203017X
27. Rovira-Sugranes , A.、 Razi , A.、 Afghah , F.、 Chakareski , J。无人机网络人工智能路由协议回顾：趋势、挑战和未来展望。 检索自 www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1570870522000087