李锦维：美众院议长近期访台的后果
据新华社4月7日报道，中国外交部发言人赵立坚就佩洛西将于4月10日访问台湾的消息作出回应。赵立坚指出，此次访问将严重影响中美关系，如果佩洛西访问台湾，中方必将采取坚决有力措施。赵立坚强调，北京政府坚决反对美台之间任何形式的官方往来，并指出美方应取消此次访问。赵立坚补充说，美方应对上述访问造成的负面影响负责。
本次先发布美国众议院议长佩罗西不是美联社，也不是美国之音或其他美媒，就是笔者撰写本文的北京时间4月7日午夜之时，几乎所有美媒都没有任何报道和提及。然而北京时间4月8日凌晨笔者获悉美国官方消息，佩罗西刚患新冠无症状感染，其对台湾访问延期进行（当前美国的隔离期为5天）。那么第一消息是谁先发布的？第一消息是台湾媒体于4月7日上午发布的，基本内容就是4月10日是美国通过有关对台湾提供军事援助的《台湾关系法》43周年纪念日，美国众议院议长佩罗西将访问台湾。然后才有新加坡官方媒体、日本官方媒体以及英国路透社转发，新华社则引用媒体已经开始援引的这一美国最重要的政客即将访问台湾的重大新闻。
佩罗西何许人也？
南西·帕泰瑞夏·佩罗西（英语：Nancy Patricia Pelosi，本姓 达历山德罗（英语：D'Alessandro）；1940年3月26日－）是一名美国政治家，2007至2011年担任美国众议院议长，2019年起再次担任。她自1987年起担任美国众议院议员（加利福尼亚州选区）。作为民主党人，佩罗西是美国历史上第一位女性众议院议长。她在美国总统继任顺序中排名第二，仅次于副总统贺锦丽。
她跟随父亲小汤马斯·达历山德罗进入政坛，1987年成为国会议员，2021年起已是第18个任期。其父曾担任美国众议院议员（马里兰州选区）和巴尔的摩市长。佩罗西是加利福尼亚州国会代表团团长。她最早属于加州第五选区（1987–1993年）。1990年人口普查后选区重划，她被分入第八选区（1993–2013年），2013年后又被划入第十二选区，该选区包含旧金山五分之四的市郡。她自2003年起担任众议院民主党领袖，是第一位女性众议院政党领袖，其中2003–2007年与2011–2019年间为少数党领袖。
佩罗西反对发动伊拉克战争，也反对布什政府试图将社保部分私有化。她在第一个议长任期内积极推动了许多欧巴马政府的法案，包括平价医疗法案，多德-弗兰克法案，美国复苏与再投资法以及2010年减税法案。
因共和党在2010年中期选举中赢得众议院多数席位，佩罗西失去了议长职位，成为众议院少数党领袖。但她仍是众议院民主党党团领袖。2018年众议院选举后，民主党重新控制众议院。2019年1月3日，第116届国会召开，佩罗西再次当选议长，成为1955年的萨姆·雷本之后第一个重返原职的前议长。在佩罗西的领导下，众议院于2019年12月18日和2021年1月13日两度弹劾总统川普，但都被参议院宣判无罪。拜登就任以来，她积极推动了拜登政府的一系列法案，包括美国投资法与美国救援方案法。
在对待中国问题上，南希·佩洛西担任众议员以来，以一直关注中国人权著称，是美国其中一个属于对华强硬派的政治人物，十多年来一直投票反对给中国最惠国待遇、申办奥运会等，在2007年6月12日即以众议院议长身份发表声明要求美国介入调查中国厂商的剥削童工。佩洛西因1989年在中国抗议六四事件而被拘捕并关押过几日，1991年，佩洛西曾在北京天安门广场打出横幅，横幅写着“献给中国民主事业牺牲的烈士”，她为此被驱逐出境。
佩洛西亦提出了为六四事件时期的中国学生提供庇护的中国学生保护法案。1992年，佩洛西获由中国民运组成的反中国政府的中国民主教育基金会颁发第7届杰出民主人士奖。
佩洛西与前任参议院民主党少数党领袖哈里·瑞德同属民主党内的对华强硬派，主张与中国进行人权对话，并经常批评中国的人权状况。
2008年3月21日，佩洛西在与第十四世达赖喇嘛和西藏流亡政府官员会晤后，批评了中国政府对2008年西藏骚乱的处理，并呼吁“热爱自由”的全世界人民谴责中国政府。
2008年10月24日，佩洛西赞扬欧洲议会授予异见者和人权活动人士胡佳萨哈罗夫思想自由奖这个“大胆的决定”。她在声明中说：“我对我国政府呼吁立即无条件地释放胡佳和尊重所有中国人民的基本自由。”
2015年11月，佩洛西率领美国国会议员代表团访问中国，并在中国安排下访问西藏自治区。佩洛西结束访西藏之行在北京会见中国全国人大副委员长张平时，张平问她，西藏之旅怎么样。在会议现场的记者听不到佩洛西当时的回答。西藏官方报纸说佩洛西赞赏西藏的变化和宗教自由，但外媒并没有听到佩洛西发表访问西藏的评论。
2017年8月，佩洛西批评参与重夺“公民广场”行动的香港民主活动人士被监禁，她称该裁决不公正。
在特朗普政府于2018年3月下旬对中国发起美中贸易战前，佩洛西和其他民主党人敦促特朗普更加关注中国并施加实际惩罚，履行自己的竞选承诺，将中国列为汇率操纵国并阻止中国向美国施压使科技公司放弃知识产权。佩洛西敦促特朗普对中国的不公平竞争行为采取坚决立场。
2019年6月4日，佩洛西在一次听证会中鉴于“中国近日对香港的举动”，赞扬香港维园六四烛光晚会中的示威行动是“一道美丽的风景线”。
2019年6月12日，佩洛西发表声明，声援反对修订送中条例的香港示威者，并称“美国与香港市民同在”。
2019年6月19日，佩洛西在基督科学箴言报赞助的早餐会上批评中国违反一国两制。记者提问香港局势，佩洛西指“200万人上街反对引渡条例，占全香港四分之一人口，是一道美丽的风景线”。
2019年9月，佩洛西在国会山会见了香港民主活动人士黄之锋。
2020年4月，香港警察搜捕15名民主派知名人士，佩洛西促白宫执行《香港人权与民主法案》。
通过上面佩罗西对中国问题的态度和立场以及所采取的立法措施，就能看出佩罗西不是一般的美国政客，而是十分重要的政客，并且她的对华立场是不友好的，说得明确一些，用中国的说法就是敌对的。
为什么说佩罗西是一位十分重要的美国现职政客？这主要与其担任众议院议长有关，美国的众议院是与美国参议院组成美国国会的两翼之一，美国所有的法律，财政大权，对外战争等等都需要美国国会批准。美国国会又是美国政治体制中三权分立的重要支柱，也就是美国的政治体制不可以由一个人说了算，早年的美国政治家在1783年赢得对英国的独立战争之后以基督教为立国原则，揭示人性具有罪恶的弱点，为了美国国家长治久安，而是需要由总统、由参议院众议院组成的国会、由9位大法官组成的最高法院共同分享政治权力，互相制衡以确定美国政治运作机制，这机制至今已经运作了230多年的历史，而且还将运作下去。
这样一位现职重量级的美国政客访台的后果是什么？
一、 因为佩罗西不是一般的小人物，也不是美国国务卿，她的职权远高于美国国务卿、国防部长，而是美国第3号人物，在关键时刻是第2号人物，她所主持的法律，美国总统都不得不贯彻落实执行，比如《美国与台湾关系法案》就是，40多年美国历届总统都必须以这部美国的台湾关系法向台湾出售武器，并且还要以这部美国国内法以保护台湾不受中国大陆用武力改变台海现状，如果中国大陆用武力改变现状的话，美国就可以军事介入，这个后果40多年来一直存在。中美两国对台湾问题的解释是不一样的，参照的法律依据，政治基础不一样，中国以中美三个联合公报为依据，而美国不但有与台湾关系法而且还有对台6项保证。
二、 未来的后果将会是，如果佩罗西成功访问台湾后，根据佩罗西在美国政坛的具有举足轻重的地位，控制着立法大权，很可能在未来几年内制定新的对台法案以强化对台的保护，法案的种类可以多种多样，政治、军事、外交、经济都可以。
三、 引发台海战争的后果，就是这次佩罗西访问台湾之后，接下来美台如何加深交往，以及两国元首对台海问题的看法如何，将决定台海的前景如何，其它任何人的猜想也好，都无济于事的。下面是人民日报属下的环球时报前总编胡锡进今天的微博撰文2点节录：我方应发表声明，要求美台必须放弃佩洛西访台的计划，否则，我方将采取严厉行动，宣示中国对台主权。一旦美台一意孤行推佩洛西访台成行，那么我建议大陆方面采取前所未有的行动，让佩洛西的访问无法正常进行。可供选择的方案有很多，我在此提出两项：
其一，宣布10日当天关闭台湾上空，实施禁飞。解放军出动大批战机环绕台湾岛飞行，确保禁飞得到落实。由于佩洛西的挑衅，促成中国行使对台主权的这一新方式，这是“台独”行动加快两岸统一的应有逻辑。
其二，解放军战机在佩洛西访台当天飞越台湾岛，既可从海峡方向自西向东飞越，也可从佩洛西乘坐飞机入岛的方向飞越，为此我军要做好全面应急准备。如果台军对我军战机开火，解放军应击落台机，或对发射导弹的台军基地实施摧毁性打击。
对胡锡进的言论不要过分解读也不要寄于厚望，他过去在任总编辑时也一直主张，如：如果出现美国军机或美国军人出现在台湾就是武统台湾之时，中国要生产1000枚核武器。最近2年美国军机多次出入台湾以及一些美国军事人员早在台湾协助训练台湾军事人员，底牌告诉世界生产1000枚核武器是否已经完成，这些都是国家最高军事作战方案和军事机密，胡锡进怎么可以代表中国政府来宣示呢？胡锡进这些说法早已经引起西方各国关注，所以去年中国驻欧盟大使张明被记者问到胡这些话时，中国驻欧盟大使张明回答，他作为媒体人不作为中国政府的表示，虽然记者获得张大使的解答，但是欧盟各国的首脑会相信吗？如果胡锡进的话，成为现实的话，很有可能引发大规模战争或者第3次世界大战，胡先生不知道战争的残酷，任何战争倒霉的绝大多数都是老百姓，第一次和第二次世界大战都是这种情况，现在联合国追责的，国际法院判决的俄罗斯侵略乌克兰的战争也是如此。
四、 中美各类交往可能更加困难的后果，目前中美交往已经十分困难，冷战在继续进行中，虽双方都没有明说，但是现实就是如此。特朗普政府时期开打贸易战，拜登政府在对华立场上基本维持特朗普的做法，有的甚至更远，在美对台交往上是40多年中美建交以来美国与台湾走得最密切，拜登政府当前的做法就是继续采用模糊的办法，但是由于美台军事外交实质推进与台湾的交往，有开始从模糊的清晰的可能，如果继续发展，不排除外交军事的重大变故。
李锦维博士
20220408 1:00(北京时间）
作者系国际关系专家、哈佛进修学者
Li Jinwei: Consequences of US House Speaker's recent visit to Taiwan
According to Xinhua News Agency on April 7, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian responded to the news that Pelosi will visit Taiwan on April 10. Zhao Lijian pointed out that this visit will seriously affect Sino-US relations. If Pelosi visits Taiwan, China will take firm and effective measures. Zhao Lijian emphasized that the Beijing government firmly opposes any form of official exchanges between the United States and Taiwan, and pointed out that the United States should cancel the visit. Zhao Lijian added that the US side should be responsible for the negative impact of the visit.
The first release of the US House of Representatives Speaker Pelosi is not the Associated Press, nor the Voice of America or other US media, but as of midnight Beijing time on April 7th when the author was writing this article, almost all US media have not reported or mentioned anything. However, in the early morning of April 8th, Beijing time, the author just learning from the official news of the United States that Pelosi had just contracted an asymptomatic infection of the new crown, and her visit to Taiwan was postponed (the current isolation period in the United States is 5 days) So who posted the first news first? The first news was released by the Taiwanese media on the morning of April 7. The basic content is that April 10 is the 43rd anniversary of the passage of the Taiwan Relations Act by the United States on providing military assistance to Taiwan. Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Pelosi will visit. Taiwan. Only then did the Singaporean state media, the Japanese state media and the British Reuters forward it, and the Xinhua News Agency quoted the major news that the most important US politician was about to visit Taiwan, which the media had begun to quote.
Who is Pelosi?
Nancy Patricia Pelosi (née D'Alessandro; born March 26, 1940) was an American politician from 2007 to 2011 Served as Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives and will serve again in 2019. She has served in the U.S. House of Representatives (California District) since 1987. As a Democrat, Pelosi is the first female speaker of the House of Representatives in U.S. history. She ranks second in the U.S. presidential succession line, behind Vice President Harrison.
She entered politics with her father, Thomas D'Alessandro Jr., became a member of Congress in 1987 and will be serving her 18th term starting in 2021. His father served as a member of the U.S. House of Representatives (Maryland District) and mayor of Baltimore. Pelosi is the head of the California congressional delegation. She originally belonged to California's Fifth District (1987–1993). Redistricted after the 1990 census, she was drawn into the eighth district (1993–2013), and after 2013, the twelfth district, which included four-fifths of the city and county of San Francisco. She has been House Democratic leader since 2003 and is the first female House party leader, including minority leader from 2003–2007 and 2011–2019.
Pelosi opposed starting the Iraq war and the Bush administration's attempt to partially privatize Social Security. During her first term as Speaker, she actively promoted many Obama administration bills, including the Affordable Care Act, the Dodd-Frank Act, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, and the 2010 Tax Cuts Act.
Pelosi lost the speakership after the Republicans won the House majority in the 2010 midterm elections and became House Minority Leader. But she remains the leader of the House Democratic caucus. After the 2018 House election, Democrats regained control of the House. On January 3, 2019, the 116th Congress was held, and Pelosi was re-elected as Speaker, becoming the first former Speaker to return to the original post since Sam Raeburn in 1955. Under Pelosi's leadership, the House impeached President Trump twice on December 18, 2019, and January 13, 2021, but both were acquitted by the Senate. Since Biden took office, she has actively promoted a series of bills in the Biden administration, including the US Investment Law and the US Rescue Program Law.
On the issue of dealing with China, Nancy Pelosi has been known for her constant attention to human rights in China since she was a congressman. etc. On June 12, 2007, he issued a statement in his capacity as Speaker of the House of Representatives asking the United States to intervene in the investigation into the exploitation of child labour by Chinese manufacturers. Pelosi was arrested and detained for a few days for protesting the June 4 incident in China in 1989. In 1991, Pelosi displayed a banner in Tiananmen Square in Beijing that reads "Dedicated to the martyrs who sacrificed for the cause of democracy in China". was deported for this.
Pelosi also proposed the Chinese Student Protection Act, which would provide asylum to Chinese students during the June 4th Incident. In 1992, Pelosi was awarded the 7th Outstanding Democracy Award by the China Democracy Education Foundation, an anti-Chinese government formed by the Chinese democracy movement.
Pelosi and former Senate Democratic Minority Leader Harry Reid belong to the China hardliners in the Democratic Party, advocate human rights dialogue with China, and often criticize China's human rights situation.
On March 21, 2008, after a meeting with the 14th Dalai Lama and Tibetan government-in-exile officials, Pelosi criticized the Chinese government's handling of the 2008 Tibet riots and called on "freedom-loving" people around the world to condemn it Government of china.
"bold decision" of the European Parliament to award dissident and human rights activist Huja Sakharov the Freedom of Thought Prize. "I appeal to my government for the immediate and unconditional release of Hu Jia and respect for the fundamental freedoms of all Chinese people," she said in a statement.
In November 2015, Pelosi led a delegation of U.S. congressmen to visit China and, under China's arrangement, visited the Tibet Autonomous Region. Pelosi met Zhang Ping, vice-chairman of China's National People's Congress, in Beijing after her trip to Tibet. Zhang Ping asked her how her trip to Tibet was. Reporters at the meeting couldn't hear Pelosi's answer at the time. The official Tibetan newspaper said Pelosi appreciated changes and religious freedom in Tibet, but foreign media did not hear Pelosi's comments about her visit to Tibet.
In August 2017, Pelosi criticized the jailing of Hong Kong pro-democracy activists involved in the retake of "Citizen Square," a ruling she called unfairly.
Before the Trump administration launched a U.S.-China trade war against China in late March 2018, Pelosi and other Democrats urged Trump to pay more attention to China and impose practical penalties, fulfilling his campaign promise to list China as a currency Manipulate state and prevent China from pressuring the U.S. to get tech companies to give up intellectual property. Pelosi urged Trump to take a firm stance on China's unfair competition practices.
On June 4, 2019, in a hearing, Pelosi praised the demonstrations at the June 4 candlelight evening in Victoria Park in Hong Kong as "a beautiful landscape" given "China's recent actions towards Hong Kong".
On June 12, 2019, Pelosi stated solidarity with the Hong Kong demonstrators who opposed the amendment to the law, and said that "the United States is with the citizens of Hong Kong."
On June 19, 2019, Pelosi criticized China for violating one country, two systems at a breakfast sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor. When the reporter asked about the situation in Hong Kong, Pelosi pointed out that "2 million people took to the streets to oppose the extradition bill, accounting for a quarter of Hong Kong's population, which is a beautiful sight."
In September 2019, Pelosi met with Hong Kong pro-democracy activist Zhifeng Wong on Capitol Hill.
In April 2020, the Hong Kong police arrested 15 prominent pro-democracy figures, and Pelosi urged the White House to implement the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.
From Pelosi's attitude and position on the China issue and the legislative measures taken above, it can be seen that Pelosi is not an ordinary American politician, but a very important politician and her position on China is not friendly. To be clear, in Chinese terms it is hostile.
Why is Pelosi a very important current American politician? This is mainly related to his role as the Speaker of the House of Representatives. The House of Representatives of the United States is one of the two wings of the United States Congress formed with the United States Senate. All laws, fiscal powers, foreign wars, etc. in the United States require the approval of the United States Congress. The U.S. Congress is also an important pillar of the separation of powers in the U.S. political system, that is, the U.S. political system cannot be dictated by one person. In the early years, American politicians took Christianity as their founding principle after winning the War of Independence against Great Britain in 1783. , revealing the sinful weakness of human nature. For the long-term stability of the United States, it is necessary for the President, the Congress composed of the Senate and the House of Representatives, and the Supreme Court composed of 9 justices to share political rights and check and balance each other to determine the mechanism of American political operation. The mechanism has been in operation for more than 230 years and will continue to operate.
What are the consequences of such a current heavyweight American politician's visit to Taiwan?
A、 Because Pelosi is not an ordinary little person, nor is she the Secretary of State of the United States. Her authority is far higher than that of the Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense of the United States. She is the No. 3 person in the United States and the No. 2 person at a critical moment. The law she presides over is the United States. Presidents have to implement it. For example, the "US-Taiwan Relations Act" means that all US presidents for more than 40 years must use this US Taiwan Relations Act to sell weapons to Taiwan, and also use this US domestic law to protect Taiwan. If the Chinese mainland uses force to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, the United States can intervene militarily if the Chinese mainland uses force to change the status quo. This consequence has existed for more than 40 years. China and the United States have different interpretations of the Taiwan issue. The legal basis and political basis for reference are different. China uses the three Sino-US joint communique as the basis, while the United States not only has the Taiwan Relations Act but also has 6 items against Taiwan. guarantee.
B、 The consequences in the future will be that, if Pelosi successfully visits Taiwan, based on Pelosi's pivotal position in the US political arena and control of the legislative power, it is likely that new Taiwan-related bills will be enacted in the next few years to strengthen Taiwan's confrontation. There are various types of bills, including political, military, diplomatic, and economic.
C、 War in the Taiwan Strait is that after Pelosi visits Taiwan, how the United States and Taiwan will deepen their exchanges, and how the two heads of state view the Taiwan Strait issue, will determine the prospects of the Taiwan Strait, anyone else's guess Well, it's all to no avail. The following is a 2-point excerpt from today's Weibo article by Hu Xijin, the former editor-in-chief of the Global Times under the People's Daily :
We should issue a statement asking the United States and Taiwan to abandon Pelosi's plan to visit Taiwan, otherwise, we will take stern action to declare China's sovereignty over Taiwan. Once the United States and Taiwan insist on pushing Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, then I suggest that the mainland take unprecedented action to prevent Pelosi's visit from going on normally. There are many options to choose from, I'll suggest two here:
First, it was announced that the sky over Taiwan would be closed on the 10th and a no-fly was implemented. The People's Liberation Army dispatched a large number of fighter jets to fly around the island of Taiwan to ensure the implementation of the no-fly. Due to Pelosi's provocation, China's new way of exercising its sovereignty over Taiwan is the logical reason for the "Taiwan independence" action to accelerate cross-strait reunification.
Second, the PLA fighter jets flew over the island of Taiwan on the day Pelosi visited Taiwan, either from west to east from the strait, or from the direction that Pelosi took a plane into the island. For this reason, our army must make comprehensive emergency preparations. If the Taiwan military opens fire on our fighter jets, the PLA should shoot down the aircraft, or carry out destructive strikes on the Taiwan military base where the missiles were launched.
Don’t over-interpret Hu Xijin’s remarks and don’t place high hopes. When he was the editor-in-chief, he always advocated, for example, if there is an American military plane or American soldiers appearing in Taiwan, it will be the time when Taiwan will be reunited by force, and China will produce 1,000 nuclear weapons. In the past two years, U.S. military planes have entered and exited Taiwan many times, and some U.S. military personnel have assisted in training Taiwanese military personnel as early as Taiwan. Can it be declared on behalf of the Chinese government? Hu Xijin's remarks have already attracted the attention of Western countries, so when Zhang Ming, the Chinese ambassador to the EU, was asked by reporters about Hu's words last year, Zhang Ming, the Chinese ambassador to the EU, replied that as a media person, he does not represent the Chinese government. The ambassador's answer, but will the heads of the EU countries believe it? If Hu Xijin's words become a reality, it is very likely to trigger a large-scale war or the third world war. Mr. Hu does not know the cruelty of war. The vast majority of the unlucky people in any war are ordinary people. This is the case, and now the United Nations is holding the blame, and the same is true of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine as ruled by the International Court of Justice.
D、 Of various exchanges between China and the United States may be more difficult. At present, the exchanges between China and the United States are already very difficult, and the Cold War is continuing. Although neither side has stated it clearly, this is the reality. The Trump administration started a trade war, and the Biden administration basically maintained Trump’s approach in its stance toward China, and some even went further. In terms of U.S.-Taiwan exchanges, the United States and Taiwan have walked the most since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States more than 40 years ago. Closely, the current approach of the Biden administration is to continue to adopt a vague approach. However, since the US-Taiwan military diplomacy has substantially advanced its exchanges with Taiwan, it is possible to start from vague and clear. If it continues to develop, major diplomatic and military changes cannot be ruled out.
Dr. Li Jinwei
20220408 1：00（Beijing time)
The author is an international relations expert and a Harvard scholar